Win probability
23%Nottingham Forest
26%Draw
51%Manchester City
Premier League · England
Markets
Over 2.5 goals57%
Under 2.5 goals43%
Both teams score (GG)23%
Double chance X277%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · Manchester CityMCI
City play three days after winning 3-2 in Leipzig on Wednesday, their third match in eight days.
- ▼Key player out · Manchester CityMCI
Half weight: Semenyo's knee injury and expected two-month absence have been known since 19 October.
- ●Key attacker out · Manchester CityMCI
Half weight for Semenyo, known out since 19 October and again listed out by UEFA for the Leipzig game.
- ▼ESPN say Delap risks losing his place to Chris Wood, who has yet to start a league game this season.NOT
ESPN say Delap risks losing his place to Chris Wood, who has yet to start a league game this season.
- ▼Nicolás Domínguez outNOT
Domínguez is out with a knock for the Man City game.
- ▼Nicolò Savona outNOT
Savona is out with a knee injury for the Man City game.
- ▼Glasner said his post-Brentford outburst was meant to spark change and that training has been good, but he refused to say what he has changed before Man City.NOT
Glasner said his post-Brentford outburst was meant to spark change and that training has been good, but he refused to say what he has changed before Man City.
- ▼After Donnarumma's near-post error in the 3-2 win at Leipzig, Maresca backed him fully, called his form no concern and said he is not thinking of changing his goalkeeper.MCI
After Donnarumma's near-post error in the 3-2 win at Leipzig, Maresca backed him fully, called his form no concern and said he is not thinking of changing his goalkeeper.
Preview
City's goals are the case for this pick. They score 2.25 a game away, and they answered two straight league defeats by winning 3-2 in Leipzig with a Haaland goal in the 78th minute. They do have a short turnaround, with three days' rest and travel, and Maresca meets the press on Friday. Semenyo is still out with his knee injury. Forest sit 19th on six points. Glasner said he made too many compromises after a 2-0 loss at Brentford, but the Telegraph reports the squad responded well and that he is not understood to be under pressure from the owner. The risk to this pick is clear. Forest average zero goals at home, and Opta ranks them second on expected goals against, so they may be tighter than the table suggests. The market still rates over 2.5 at 58%, and we take it down to 56.6% for Semenyo. City at about 51% fall short of our 55% line after the short week.
City's attack makes goals the likeliest route, though Forest's poor home scoring is a real risk. We rate over 2.5 at 56.6%.
Head to head
- 2026-03-04Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 2025-12-27Nottingham Forest 1–2 Manchester CityPremier League
- 2025-04-27Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester CityFA Cup
- 2025-03-08Nottingham Forest 1–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 2024-12-04Manchester City 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
FAQ
Why not back Manchester City to win?
After the short week and Semenyo's absence we rate them near 51%, under our 55% line.
What is the risk to over 2.5?
Forest average zero goals at home, so City may need to score most of them.
What is the best bet for Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.71, rated 57% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 57% for this match.
When does Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City kick off?
Sat 07 Nov, 17:30 UTC.