Win probability
17%Crystal Palace
24%Draw
59%Liverpool
Premier League · England
Markets
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Under 2.5 goals37%
Both teams score (GG)59%
Double chance X283%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · Crystal PalaceCRY
Mateta, who started at Tottenham before his red card, serves a three-match ban after Palace's appeal was rejected on 4 November.
- ▼Conditions · Crystal PalaceCRY
Palace played Hoffenheim on Thursday, and the preview notes they have less time to rest than Liverpool, who played on Wednesday.
- ▼Fixture congestion · LiverpoolLIV
Third match in eight days for Liverpool: Arsenal, then Fenerbahce away in Istanbul three days later, then Palace on Sunday.
- ▼Starter out · LiverpoolLIV
Half weight: Gravenberch is a doubt. He has a heel fracture, missed the Fenerbahce trip, and Iraola called it day to day and could not say if he will make Palace.
- ●Open game expected · Both teamsBoth
Four of the last five meetings had three or more goals (4, 3, 3, 4, 2), counted from our fixture data, and Palace have conceded a league-high 21 goals in nine games.
- ▼Palace's appeal failed, so Mateta serves a three-match ban and misses Liverpool, Coventry and Hull.CRY
Palace's appeal failed, so Mateta serves a three-match ban and misses Liverpool, Coventry and Hull.
- ▼Disasi was dropped from the matchday squad for the 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim after starting the last two league games; Sage called it an internal decision and Ahanor started instead.CRY
Disasi was dropped from the matchday squad for the 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim after starting the last two league games; Sage called it an internal decision and Ahanor started instead.
- ▼Ryan Gravenberch doubtfulLIV
Gravenberch has a heel fracture he has played through; he missed Fenerbahce, has not improved since Arsenal, and Iraola called his Palace chances a day-to-day call.
Preview
Palace's defence is the story here. They have conceded a league-high 21 goals in nine games and lost their last three league matches, letting in nine. Liverpool are not watertight either. They lost 3-2 at Fenerbahce on Wednesday, conceding three from set pieces, and Van Dijk said shipping three a game is not sustainable. Four of the last five meetings had at least three goals, so we rate over 2.5 at 63%. Palace lose Mateta to a three-match ban, though Strand Larsen was back on the bench for Thursday's 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim. Sarr, Tomiyasu and Riad remain out, and Sage says Disasi is available after being left out on Thursday. Liverpool have the stronger attack, but this is their third match in eight days. Gravenberch is a doubt with a heel fracture. Isak and Wirtz only came on after 66 minutes in Istanbul, so both should be fresher. A Liverpool win is the likely result, yet we rate it at 59%, and 1.66 does not pay enough for that.
Two leaky defences and an open recent history point to goals. We rate over 2.5 at 63%, ahead of a Liverpool win at 59%.
Head to head
- 2026-04-25Liverpool 3–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 2025-10-29Liverpool 0–3 Crystal PalaceLeague Cup
- 2025-09-27Crystal Palace 2–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 2025-08-10Crystal Palace 2–2 LiverpoolCommunity Shield
- 2025-05-25Liverpool 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
FAQ
Why over 2.5 instead of a Liverpool win?
It is the likelier outcome in our numbers: 63% for over 2.5 against 59% for Liverpool.
Is Mateta playing against Liverpool?
No. Palace's appeal failed, so he serves a three-match ban that covers Liverpool, Coventry and Hull.
Will Gravenberch play?
He is a doubt. Iraola said his heel fracture is a day-to-day matter and could not say if he will be ready.
What is the best bet for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57, rated 63% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 63% for this match.
When does Crystal Palace vs Liverpool kick off?
Sun 08 Nov, 14:00 UTC.