Win probability
23%Sunderland
29%Draw
48%Chelsea
Premier League · England
Market view: probabilities from 25 bookmakers' odds, margin removed. Researched picks publish up to 48 hours before kickoff, only when our checks clear one. How we make predictions.
Markets
Over 2.5 goals54%
Under 2.5 goals46%
Both teams score (GG)38%
Double chance X277%
Key factors
- ▼Key player out · SunderlandSUN
Alderete is suspended and Ballard is injured, so NBC Sports says Sunderland's top two centre-backs are out. Counted once, for Alderete.
- ▼Conditions · SunderlandSUN
Sunderland played Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday, and Sky's report says the Thursday-Sunday schedule is exposing a lack of squad depth.
- ▼Key player out · ChelseaCHE
Leading scorer Joao Pedro is out, according to NBC Sports, along with captain Reece James.
- ●Key defender out · SunderlandSUN
Sunderland's top two centre-backs, Alderete (suspended) and Ballard (injured), are out. Scaled to fit the goals cap.
- ●Key defender out · ChelseaCHE
NBC Sports calls Lacroix a key centre-back for Chelsea, and he is out injured. Scaled to fit the goals cap.
- ●Key attacker out · ChelseaCHE
Chelsea are without leading scorer Joao Pedro. Scaled to fit the goals cap.
- ▼After the 2-0 home loss to Dinamo Zagreb, with bottom-placed Sunderland booed, Le Bris agreed confidence is probably low and called Chelsea the week's most important game.SUN
After the 2-0 home loss to Dinamo Zagreb, with bottom-placed Sunderland booed, Le Bris agreed confidence is probably low and called Chelsea the week's most important game.
- ▼Habib Diarra outSUN
Hamstring injury in training; Le Bris put the absence at about six weeks and Talbi replaced him in the Europa League squad.
Preview
Sunderland are bottom on five points and were booed after losing 2-0 at home to Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday. Le Bris made six changes that night and called Chelsea the most important game of the week. The problem is at the back. Ballard is injured and Alderete is suspended, which removes his top two centre-backs. Diarra and Mundle are also out, and Mukiele is a doubt. Sunderland have conceded at least twice in five of their last six league games. Chelsea are fourth on 16 points after beating Manchester United 2-0, and they have had a full week off while Sunderland played in Europe. They have problems of their own, though. Joao Pedro, Reece James and Lacroix are all out, and Caicedo is a doubt. Sunderland have also won the last two meetings, both 2-1. We rate Chelsea at 48% and over 2.5 at 54%. Both fall short of our 55% bar, so there is no pick on this one.
Injuries hit both sides, and Sunderland have beaten Chelsea twice running. Chelsea at 48% and over 2.5 at 54% both miss our 55% minimum, so we pass.
Head to head
- 2026-05-24Sunderland 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 2025-10-25Chelsea 1–2 SunderlandPremier League
- 2017-05-21Chelsea 5–1 SunderlandPremier League
- 2016-12-14Sunderland 0–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 2016-05-07Sunderland 3–2 ChelseaPremier League
FAQ
Why is there no pick for Sunderland v Chelsea?
Nothing priced reaches our 55% minimum. Over 2.5 is closest at 54%, and Chelsea to win is at 48%.
Who is missing for Sunderland?
Ballard, Diarra and Mundle are out and Alderete is suspended. Mukiele is a doubt.
Is Joao Pedro playing for Chelsea?
He is reported out, along with Reece James and Lacroix.
What is the best bet for Sunderland vs Chelsea?
The market favourite is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.87, rated 53% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 54% for this match.
When does Sunderland vs Chelsea kick off?
Sun 08 Nov, 14:00 UTC.