Win probability
44%Newcastle
27%Draw
28%Aston Villa
Premier League · England
Markets
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Under 2.5 goals41%
Both teams score (GG)64%
Double chance 1X71%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · Aston VillaAST
Matteo Ruggeri, who started at left-back against Brentford, went off at half-time with a hamstring problem; Emery says he will be out for some weeks, more than a month. Ian Maatsen is also not yet available.
- ▼Fixture congestion · Aston VillaAST
Villa's third match in eight days: Brentford in the league on Saturday 10 October and Fenerbahce in the Champions League on Wednesday 14 October, before this Saturday trip north (house rule 2).
- ▼Jacob Ramsey suspendedNEW
Ramsey serves a one-match ban at Fulham after his red card against Everton.
- ▲Fernandez-Pardo is back training with the squad after a heavy virus kept him out for over two weeks; Jaissle will judge his fitness before deciding on Fulham.NEW
Fernandez-Pardo is back training with the squad after a heavy virus kept him out for over two weeks; Jaissle will judge his fitness before deciding on Fulham.
- ▼Joelinton outNEW
Joelinton went off injured again and is out for Fulham; Jaissle said a treatment plan is still being settled, so the length of the absence is unknown.
- ▼Fernandez-Pardo doubtfulNEW
Fernandez-Pardo was described as absent of late before the Everton match; no reason given.
- ▼William Osula outNEW
Osula has an ankle injury and was highly unlikely for the Everton match.
- ▲Elanga, back to fitness, came off the bench late in the 2-0 win at Crystal Palace.NEW
Elanga, back to fitness, came off the bench late in the 2-0 win at Crystal Palace.
Preview
Newcastle return to St James' Park on Saturday after a 4-1 defeat at Coventry on Monday night, a game Matthias Jaissle said was lost to too many individual mistakes. They sit 11th on eight points, scoring two per game at home but conceding 1.67. Anthony Elanga is still out and should only start partial training next week, with Jacob Ramsey on a similar path. Jaissle is hopeful Bazoumana Touré can play after he was withdrawn late at Coventry, while Dan Burn and Joelinton both came back off the bench there. Aston Villa arrive 16th on five points but buoyed by a 6-0 Champions League win over Fenerbahce on Wednesday, their third game in eight days. Unai Emery is short at left-back: Matteo Ruggeri is out for more than a month with a hamstring problem and Ian Maatsen is not yet back. The last five meetings produced 14 goals, three of them with over 2.5. We lean slightly towards Newcastle, but goals are the clearer angle: we rate over 2.5 at 59%.
Newcastle score freely at home, Villa just put six past Fenerbahce, and both defences have been loose. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.67, rated at 59%.
Head to head
- 2026-02-14Aston Villa 1–3 NewcastleFA Cup
- 2026-01-25Newcastle 0–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- 2025-08-16Aston Villa 0–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 2025-04-19Aston Villa 4–1 NewcastlePremier League
- 2024-12-26Newcastle 3–0 Aston VillaPremier League
FAQ
Who is missing for Newcastle against Aston Villa?
Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey are still working back to training. Bazoumana Touré is hoping to be available after a late knock at Coventry.
Who is missing for Aston Villa at Newcastle?
Matteo Ruggeri is out for more than a month with a hamstring problem and Ian Maatsen is not yet available, leaving Villa short at left-back.
What is the best bet for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67, which we rate at 59%. No bet is ever sure, so stake responsibly.
What is the best bet for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67, rated 59% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 59% for this match.
When does Newcastle vs Aston Villa kick off?
Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 UTC.