Manchester City

Win probability

Markets

Key factors

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  Open game expected · Both teams

  Open head-to-head pattern: the last five meetings went over 2.5 goals four times (2-2, 2-1, 2-2, 2-1; the other was 1-1) and both sides scored in all five, including Wednesday's 2-2 League Cup tie.

  Both
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  After Donnarumma's near-post error in the 3-2 win at Leipzig, Maresca backed him fully, called his form no concern and said he is not thinking of changing his goalkeeper.

  After Donnarumma's near-post error in the 3-2 win at Leipzig, Maresca backed him fully, called his form no concern and said he is not thinking of changing his goalkeeper.

  MCI
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  Semenyo out

  Semenyo listed as out (knee) by UEFA ahead of the 4 Nov Champions League match.

  MCI
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  City lost 1-0 at home to Brighton on 31 Oct, their first back-to-back Premier League defeats under Maresca. He blamed silly goals conceded and a lack of finishing.

  City lost 1-0 at home to Brighton on 31 Oct, their first back-to-back Premier League defeats under Maresca. He blamed silly goals conceded and a lack of finishing.

  MCI
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  Maresca made nine changes for the Carabao Cup win on penalties over Brighton. He rested Haaland, Donnarumma, Dias, Anderson and Gvardiol by choice, not because of injury.

  Maresca made nine changes for the Carabao Cup win on penalties over Brighton. He rested Haaland, Donnarumma, Dias, Anderson and Gvardiol by choice, not because of injury.

  MCI
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  Guehi was withdrawn at half-time last weekend and could drop to the bench, with Khusanov expected at centre-back; Matheus Nunes should return after missing two games.

  Guehi was withdrawn at half-time last weekend and could drop to the bench, with Khusanov expected at centre-back; Matheus Nunes should return after missing two games.

  MCI
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  Kovacic was fit to start the Carabao Cup win over Brighton, one of nine changes Maresca made.

  Kovacic was fit to start the Carabao Cup win over Brighton, one of nine changes Maresca made.

  MCI

Preview

First hosts third at the Etihad, three days after the same two sides drew 2-2 in the League Cup. City went through on penalties, but both managers rotated hard that night: Maresca made nine changes and rested Haaland, Donnarumma, Dias, Anderson and Gvardiol, while Hurzeler made seven. Expect much stronger line-ups on Saturday. City are without Antoine Semenyo, who hurt his knee against Ipswich and was given a timeline of around eight weeks. Brighton are missing Kaoru Mitoma, Pascal Struijk, Evan Ferguson, Stefanos Tzimas and Femi Azeez, with Ferdi Kadioglu and Chema Andres doubts. Even so, Brighton have scored 23 league goals in eight games, the most in the division, and City have 20. This fixture rarely stays tight: four of the last five meetings went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in all five. The bookmakers make City the favourites at about 58%; we rate over 2.5 goals at 70%.

Head to head

• 2026-10-28Manchester City 2–2 BrightonLeague Cup
• 2026-01-07Manchester City 1–1 BrightonPremier League
• 2025-08-31Brighton 2–1 Manchester CityPremier League
• 2025-03-15Manchester City 2–2 BrightonPremier League
• 2024-11-09Brighton 2–1 Manchester CityPremier League