Win probability
22%Hull City
26%Draw
53%Brentford
Premier League · England
Markets
Over 2.5 goals57%
Under 2.5 goals43%
Both teams score (GG)51%
Double chance X279%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · BrentfordBRE
Brentford midfielder Vitaly Janelt is suspended for Sunday's game after his red card against Liverpool.
- ▼Matt Crooks suspendedHUL
Crooks is suspended for the Arsenal game after five cautions.
- ▼Darko Gyabi outHUL
Gyabi is out until after the break and has yet to play this season.
- ▼Charlie Hughes outHUL
Hughes is out until after the break and has yet to play this season.
- ▼Lucas Gourna-Douath outHUL
Gourna-Douath has calf damage and is back after the international break.
- ▲Yarmoliuk has served his three-match ban, scored for Brentford B this week and is available for Brighton.BRE
Yarmoliuk has served his three-match ban, scored for Brentford B this week and is available for Brighton.
- ▼Hull drew 2-2 with Ipswich, extending their winless league run to seven games after two opening wins; Jakirovic switched system at half-time, adding an extra midfielder.HUL
Hull drew 2-2 with Ipswich, extending their winless league run to seven games after two opening wins; Jakirovic switched system at half-time, adding an extra midfielder.
Preview
Brentford arrive at the MKM Stadium as clear favourites, but they come without two of their midfield. Vitaly Janelt and Yehor Yarmoliuk were both sent off in the 2-1 home defeat to Liverpool, Brentford's first league loss of the season, and both serve bans on Sunday. That trims our Brentford win rating from the market's 56% to 53%, below our pick threshold. Hull have nine points from seven games after promotion and have conceded only twice at home, but they were poor in the 1-0 loss at Fulham and Sergej Jakirovic has hinted at changes. Hull also have a long injury list, with Matt Targett, Nobel Mendy and Ilyas Ansah among those out. Goals look the better angle: Brentford's league games have produced 21 goals in seven matches, three a game, and the market rates over 2.5 at 57%. Hull's tight home record is the main risk to that view. The last five meetings, all in the Championship, split two Brentford wins, one Hull win and two draws.
Brentford's midfield bans take the edge off the away win. Our surest pick is over 2.5 goals at 57%, backed by Brentford's high-scoring games so far.
Head to head
- 2020-02-01Hull City 1–5 BrentfordChampionship
- 2019-08-17Brentford 1–1 Hull CityChampionship
- 2019-02-23Brentford 5–1 Hull CityChampionship
- 2018-12-15Hull City 2–0 BrentfordChampionship
- 2018-05-06Brentford 1–1 Hull CityChampionship
FAQ
Who is missing for Brentford at Hull?
Vitaly Janelt and Yehor Yarmoliuk are suspended after their red cards against Liverpool. Jannik Schuster is back in training.
Why not back Brentford to win?
With two midfielders banned we rate the away win at about 53%, below our 55% threshold for a main pick.
What is the pick for Hull vs Brentford?
Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, which we rate at 57%. No bet is sure; Hull have conceded only twice at home this season.
What is the best bet for Hull City vs Brentford?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, rated 57% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 57% for this match.
When does Hull City vs Brentford kick off?
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 UTC.