Win probability
31%Crystal Palace
27%Draw
42%Newcastle
Premier League · England
Markets
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Under 2.5 goals39%
Both teams score (GG)81%
Double chance X269%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · Crystal PalaceCRY
Palace played a Europa League away game in Istanbul on Thursday (2-2 at Besiktas) and host Newcastle on Sunday afternoon: house rule 2, travelling after a Thursday European away game.
- ▼Disasi was dropped from the matchday squad for the 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim after starting the last two league games; Sage called it an internal decision and Ahanor started instead.CRY
Disasi was dropped from the matchday squad for the 1-1 draw with Hoffenheim after starting the last two league games; Sage called it an internal decision and Ahanor started instead.
- ▼Joelinton outNEW
Joelinton went off injured again and is out for Fulham; Jaissle said a treatment plan is still being settled, so the length of the absence is unknown.
- ▼Jacob Ramsey suspendedNEW
Ramsey serves a one-match ban at Fulham after his red card against Everton.
- ▲Fernandez-Pardo is back training with the squad after a heavy virus kept him out for over two weeks; Jaissle will judge his fitness before deciding on Fulham.NEW
Fernandez-Pardo is back training with the squad after a heavy virus kept him out for over two weeks; Jaissle will judge his fitness before deciding on Fulham.
- ▼Palace's appeal failed, so Mateta serves a three-match ban and misses Liverpool, Coventry and Hull.CRY
Palace's appeal failed, so Mateta serves a three-match ban and misses Liverpool, Coventry and Hull.
- ▼Jean-Philippe Mateta suspendedCRY
Mateta was sent off early against Tottenham, per ESPN column; ban length not stated.
Preview
Two leaky defences meet at Selhurst Park. Palace have conceded 17 goals in seven league games, the most in the division, and at home they let in 2.67 a game while scoring 2.0. Newcastle concede 2.67 a game on the road. Palace also arrive tired: they drew 2-2 in Istanbul on Thursday night in the Europa League, so we trim their win chance by two points. Team news is mixed. Palace are without Quinten Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu, while keeper Dean Henderson is back in training but Pierre Sage will only decide on him this weekend. Ben Chilwell is back. Newcastle welcome back Dan Burn, Amar Dedic and William Osula to training, but Anthony Elanga is only fit for the bench and Matias Fernandez-Pardo has been ill. The last five meetings split two wins each with one draw. We rate Newcastle slight favourites at 42%, but the clearest angle is goals: over 2.5 at 61%.
Both defences have been shipping goals all season and Palace come off a Thursday trip to Istanbul. We back over 2.5 goals at 61%; the result itself is too close to call.
Head to head
- 2026-04-12Crystal Palace 2–1 NewcastlePremier League
- 2026-01-04Newcastle 2–0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 2025-04-16Newcastle 5–0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 2024-11-30Crystal Palace 1–1 NewcastlePremier League
- 2024-04-24Crystal Palace 2–0 NewcastlePremier League
FAQ
Who is the favourite in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Newcastle, narrowly. After trimming Palace for their Thursday Europa League trip, we rate Newcastle at 42%, Palace at 31% and the draw at 27%.
Why over 2.5 goals?
Palace have conceded the most goals in the league (17 in seven games) and Newcastle concede 2.67 a game away. We rate over 2.5 at 61%.
What is the key team news?
Palace are without Quinten Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu, with Dean Henderson a doubt. Newcastle have Anthony Elanga fit only for the bench and Matias Fernandez-Pardo battling illness.
What is the best bet for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.63, rated 61% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 61% for this match.
When does Crystal Palace vs Newcastle kick off?
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 UTC.