Win probability
48%Aston Villa
27%Draw
25%Fulham
Premier League · England
Markets
Over 2.5 goals56%
Under 2.5 goals44%
Both teams score (GG)36%
Double chance 1X75%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · Aston VillaAST
Wan-Bissaka, who had been covering at left-back, remains out with a hamstring injury.
- ▼Conditions · FulhamFUL
Arbeloa planned his strongest team for Wednesday's Carabao Cup tie with Palace (lost 1-0), while Villa made nine changes for their cup game, so Fulham arrive with more tired legs.
- ▼Arbeloa addressed why Emile Smith Rowe has missed Fulham's last three matchday squads, and also Antonee Robinson's dip in form, before the Aston Villa trip (ended 1-1).FUL
Arbeloa addressed why Emile Smith Rowe has missed Fulham's last three matchday squads, and also Antonee Robinson's dip in form, before the Aston Villa trip (ended 1-1).
- ▼Affengruber and Shea Charles are expected back in the XI at Villa after being rested for the midweek cup tie.FUL
Affengruber and Shea Charles are expected back in the XI at Villa after being rested for the midweek cup tie.
- ▲Manzambi passed a late fitness test and started the 2-1 win over Manchester City after missing the Viking game with a small knock.AST
Manzambi passed a late fitness test and started the 2-1 win over Manchester City after missing the Viking game with a small knock.
- ▲Berge got over the worst of a recent illness but was only fit enough for the bench at Coventry, so Hugo Larsson made his first Premier League start in midfield.FUL
Berge got over the worst of a recent illness but was only fit enough for the bench at Coventry, so Hugo Larsson made his first Premier League start in midfield.
- ▼Amadou Onana outAST
Onana remains out with a knee injury, along with full-backs Wan-Bissaka and Ruggeri (both hamstring).
- ▲Smith Rowe was back in contention for Coventry after a knock kept him out of the Hull matchday squad.FUL
Smith Rowe was back in contention for Coventry after a knock kept him out of the Hull matchday squad.
Preview
Both sides went out of the Carabao Cup on Wednesday, but in very different ways. Emery made nine changes and Villa lost 3-0 at Bournemouth, so his first-choice players are rested for Saturday. Arbeloa had promised his strongest available side against Palace; Fulham created the chances but lost 1-0 to Nketiah's goal, and now travel on short rest. Villa are still without Onana, Ruggeri and Wan-Bissaka, which leaves them thin at full-back. Fulham are without Ryan Sessegnon, suspended after his red card against Hull. Villa sit ninth on 11 points, Fulham 15th on 8. History favours the hosts: Villa won four of the last five meetings, and three of those five games had three or more goals. The market rates a Villa win at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 56%; after small tweaks for absences and fatigue we rate Villa at 48%. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at 56%, a narrow call at a price slightly below fair.
Villa are fresher and have the better recent record in this fixture, but not by enough to back them at 2.03. Over 2.5 goals is the likeliest outcome we can price, at 56%.
Head to head
- 2026-04-25Fulham 1–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- 2025-09-28Aston Villa 3–1 FulhamPremier League
- 2025-05-03Aston Villa 1–0 FulhamPremier League
- 2024-10-19Fulham 1–3 Aston VillaPremier League
- 2024-02-17Fulham 1–2 Aston VillaPremier League
FAQ
Who is missing for Aston Villa?
Amadou Onana, Matteo Ruggeri and Aaron Wan-Bissaka were all listed as out before the Manchester City game.
Is Ryan Sessegnon available for Fulham?
No. He was sent off against Hull and the Premier League lists him as suspended for gameweeks 8 and 9.
Why over 2.5 goals?
It is the only selection we rate above 55%. Three of the last five meetings had three or more goals.
What is the best bet for Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75, rated 56% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 56% for this match.
When does Aston Villa vs Fulham kick off?
Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 UTC.