Win probability
20%Union Berlin
23%Draw
58%Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga · Germany
Markets
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Under 2.5 goals37%
Both teams score (GG)66%
Double chance X281%
Key factors
- ▼Conditions · Borussia DortmundDOR
Dortmund played a Champions League game in Bodø, northern Norway, on Wednesday night (lost 1-0) and face a Saturday afternoon away game; Kovac himself pointed to three games in a week plus the travel.
- ▼Guirassy outDOR
Guirassy misses Elversberg with a strain after going off in the Champions League win over Betis; Fábio Silva is the natural replacement.
- ▼Kemlein outUNI
Kemlein is out with a shoulder injury.
- ▼Uduokhai suspendedUNI
Uduokhai is suspended after a red card.
- ▼Serhou Guirassy doubtfulDOR
Guirassy went off in the first half of the 2-1 win over Betis feeling his thigh; Kovac expects nothing worse than a strain but will not take risks, and Fábio Silva is the natural replacement against Elversberg.
- ▼After his winner off the bench against Betis, Kovac unusually promised the 18-year-old a start in Saturday's league game with Elversberg.DOR
After his winner off the bench against Betis, Kovac unusually promised the 18-year-old a start in Saturday's league game with Elversberg.
- ▼Ilić outUNI
Ilić listed absent (appendix surgery) in the Bundesliga's matchday 8 personnel list.
Preview
Dortmund arrive in Köpenick second in the table and unbeaten in the league, but their week has been heavy. Last Friday they let a 2-0 lead slip late against Werder Bremen, with Niclas Füllkrug equalising in stoppage time. On Wednesday night they lost 1-0 in Bodø in the Champions League, a long trip north with a rotated side, and Kovac pointed to three games in a week plus the travel. Captain Nico Schlotterbeck was left at home to manage his load, and Julian Ryerson and Carney Chukwuemeka are back in the squad. Union sit 16th on four points but won their last home game 1-0 against Elversberg, with substitute Livan Burcu scoring late. Recent meetings have gone Dortmund's way: they won four of the last five, and four of those five games had three or more goals. We trim Dortmund's win chance slightly for fatigue and rate it at 58%. Goals are the stronger angle: Dortmund create plenty and Union have leaked goals. We rate over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Four of the last five Union vs Dortmund games had three or more goals, and the market expects more of the same. Our surest pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.51, rated at 63%.
Head to head
- 2026-01-24Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 2025-08-31Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 2025-02-22Borussia Dortmund 6–0 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 2024-10-05Union Berlin 2–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 2024-03-02Union Berlin 0–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
FAQ
Who is favourite in Union Berlin vs Dortmund?
Dortmund are clear favourites. We rate an away win at 58%, the draw at 23% and a Union win at 20%.
Is Schlotterbeck playing for Dortmund against Union?
He was rested for the Bodø trip to manage his load. The club has not said he is injured.
What is the best bet for Union Berlin vs Dortmund?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.51, rated at 63%. No bet is ever sure, so stake responsibly.
What is the best bet for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.51, rated 63% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 63% for this match.
When does Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 UTC.