Win probability
54%1899 Hoffenheim
25%Draw
21%FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga · Germany
Markets
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Under 2.5 goals35%
Both teams score (GG)62%
Double chance 1X79%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · 1899 HoffenheimHOF
Hoffenheim played at Crystal Palace on Thursday night and host Schalke on Sunday, the travel case in our fixture rule.
- ▼Starter out · 1899 HoffenheimHOF
Centre-back Robin Hranáč had surgery on his outer meniscus on 2 November and is expected to miss a few weeks.
- ▼Key player out · 1899 HoffenheimHOF
Albian Hajdari was already listed injured with a foot problem in the official matchday 6 list on 16 October, so this absence is more than 14 days old and counts at half a key-player weight.
- ▼Starter out · 1899 HoffenheimHOF
Adam Hložek is listed as doubtful with a calf problem. Half weight as a doubt.
- ▼Form & head-to-head · FC Schalke 04SCH
Schalke have the fewest league goals with four in eight games and have now gone four straight matches without scoring.
- ●Key defender out · 1899 HoffenheimHOF
Sport1 says the Hranáč injury hits Hoffenheim especially hard because fellow centre-back Hajdari is also out. Half weight on the factor.
- ●Key attacker out · FC Schalke 04SCH
Schalke striker Moussa Sylla is out for weeks with a leg injury, a further dent in the league's lowest-scoring attack.
- ▼Hranáč outHOF
Hranáč is out with a knee injury.
Preview
Hoffenheim games bring goals. At home they score 2.25 a game and concede 1.75, and last time out in the league they lost 2-0 at Bremen. Their squad is stretched. Thursday's 1-1 at Crystal Palace, where Daichi Kamada levelled in stoppage time, was a demanding night, and Sunday comes quickly. Centre-backs Robin Hranáč and Albian Hajdari are both out, Valentin Gendrey is gone with a broken leg, and Adam Hložek is a doubt with a calf problem. That is why we mark the home win down to 53.9%, too low for a pick. Schalke sit 17th with six points and four league goals, the fewest in the division, and have gone four games without scoring. Yet all four goals came away from home, where they also concede 1.5 a game. Robin Gosens and Soufiane El-Faouzi are back in training, while Moussa Sylla is out for weeks. A thin Hoffenheim back line, plus past meetings that went over 2.5 goals four times in five, points to goals. We rate over 2.5 at 65%.
A thin Hoffenheim defence and a Schalke side that has scored all its league goals away make over 2.5 the likeliest bet here, at 65%. The price of 1.48 is short, and the home win falls just short of a pick at 53.9%.
Head to head
- 2023-04-091899 Hoffenheim 2–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 2022-10-181899 Hoffenheim 5–1 FC Schalke 04DFB Pokal
- 2022-10-14FC Schalke 04 0–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 2021-05-081899 Hoffenheim 4–2 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 2021-01-09FC Schalke 04 4–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
FAQ
Why not back Hoffenheim to win?
The midweek trip to London and the injuries at centre-back take the home win down to 53.9% on our numbers, below our 55% floor for a pick.
Can Schalke score here?
They have four league goals in eight games, all of them away from home, and they have failed to score in their last four matches. Their away average is still one goal a game.
What does the head-to-head say?
Four of the last five meetings went over 2.5 goals, though the most recent was in April 2023, so we give it little weight.
What is the best bet for 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.48, rated 65% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 65% for this match.
When does 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Sun 08 Nov, 18:30 UTC.