Win probability
25%1. FC Köln
23%Draw
52%Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga · Germany
Markets
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Under 2.5 goals35%
Both teams score (GG)67%
Double chance X275%
Key factors
- ▼Form & head-to-head · Bayer LeverkusenBAY
Leverkusen lost 1-0 to Marseille on Thursday, their third defeat in four competitive games. The win is trimmed, not more, because they won all five of the last meetings.
- ●Cagey contest · Both teamsBoth
Derby rule: this is the Rhine derby, which Sport1 reports Leverkusen enter under pressure, so the cagey goals factor applies and the favourite gets no extra points.
- ▼Doué is listed as missing with a lack of training.BAY
Doué is listed as missing with a lack of training.
- ▼Martínez hopes Ben Seghir and Guéla Doué return after the international break but would not commit, no decision had been made on Kofane, and Eichhorn is back in training taking it step by step.BAY
Martínez hopes Ben Seghir and Guéla Doué return after the international break but would not commit, no decision had been made on Kofane, and Eichhorn is back in training taking it step by step.
- ▲Martínez said Badé was back in the squad for the Marseille game after his head injury, with Mark Flekken in goal.BAY
Martínez said Badé was back in the squad for the Marseille game after his head injury, with Mark Flekken in goal.
- ▼Skhiri outKOL
Skhiri listed absent (ankle injury) in the Bundesliga's matchday 8 personnel list.
- ▼van den Berg outKOL
van den Berg listed absent (muscle injury) in the Bundesliga's matchday 8 personnel list.
- ▼Rondić outKOL
Rondić listed absent (muscle injury) in the Bundesliga's matchday 8 personnel list.
Preview
This is the Rhine derby, and derbies tend to play tighter, so we trim the goals market. Leverkusen arrive with three defeats in four games: 0-3 at Hoffenheim, 2-4 at home to Stuttgart and 0-1 at home to Marseille on Thursday. Only a 5-2 cup win over Nürnberg broke that run. Carles Martínez did not rotate much against Marseille, while Köln last played on 1 November, a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin. Köln are 13th on 9 points, Leverkusen sixth on 13. Köln still have Thijs Dallinga, Ellyes Skhiri, Timo Hübers, Imad Rondić and Rav van den Berg in rehab, and Jan Thielmann is on an individual programme. Leverkusen miss Martin Terrier, Eliesse Ben Seghir and Guéla Doué, though Loïc Badé is back in the squad. History favours the visitors, who won all five of the last meetings, and four of those five had three goals or fewer. We rate Leverkusen at 51.9%, below our 55% line. Under 3.5 goals at 55.2% is our main pick.
Derby tension and a recent history of low totals point to under 3.5 goals, which we rate at 55.2% at odds of 1.84. Leverkusen remain favourites at 51.9%, but that is too low for a pick.
Head to head
- 2026-04-251. FC Köln 1–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 2025-12-13Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 2025-02-05Bayer Leverkusen 3–2 1. FC KölnDFB Pokal
- 2024-03-031. FC Köln 0–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 2023-10-08Bayer Leverkusen 3–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
FAQ
Why under 3.5 goals in a game with two attacking sides?
Derbies tend to be tighter, and four of the last five meetings had three goals or fewer. We rate under 3.5 at 55.2%.
Why no pick on Leverkusen?
We rate them at 51.9%, below our 55% minimum, after three defeats in their last four games.
Who is missing for Köln?
Thijs Dallinga, Ellyes Skhiri, Timo Hübers, Imad Rondić and Rav van den Berg were all in rehab when the club started derby preparation on Wednesday.
What is the best bet for 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our top pick is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.84, rated 55% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 65% for this match.
When does 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Sun 08 Nov, 14:30 UTC.