Win probability
31%SV Elversberg
25%Draw
44%FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga · Germany
Markets
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Under 2.5 goals37%
Both teams score (GG)79%
Double chance X269%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · FSV Mainz 05MAI
Nadiem Amiri dropped out of the Mainz starting XI for the cup tie at Bochum with mild knee problems, Paul Nebel taking his place; counted at half weight as a doubt.
- ▼The Bundesliga's matchday 9 overview lists no official absentees for Elversberg.ELV
The Bundesliga's matchday 9 overview lists no official absentees for Elversberg.
- ▼Posch suspendedMAI
Posch is suspended after a second-yellow dismissal.
- ▼Mwene suspendedMAI
Mwene is suspended after reaching his yellow-card limit.
- ▼Phillipp Mwene suspendedMAI
Mwene is banned for the Bayern game after his fifth booking, the first such ban in the league this season, so Fischer must rework his defence with Posch also out.
- ▼Gyamerah outELV
Gyamerah listed absent (muscular problems) in the Bundesliga's matchday 8 personnel list.
- ▼Kohr outMAI
Kohr listed absent (ankle surgery) in the Bundesliga's matchday 8 personnel list.
Preview
Both sides come into Friday's game straight off DFB-Pokal exits on Tuesday. Elversberg lost 2-0 at home to Darmstadt despite creating plenty, while Mainz went out 2-0 at Bochum in a display the club called uninspired. Mainz start as favourites, but they have a doubt over Nadiem Amiri, who missed the cup tie with mild knee problems. Captain Silvan Widmer made his first start of the season there, Paul Nebel came through about 80 minutes after his groin problem, and Robin Zentner was back on the bench after his hand injury. Elversberg were without right-back Jan Gyamerah in the cup, while Cole Campbell returned to the starting XI after an ankle problem. The numbers point to goals. Elversberg score 2.67 per home game but concede 2.33. Mainz average 3.33 goals per away game. The two clubs have met twice, both in the cup, with five goals in total. The Amiri doubt trims Mainz's win to 44%, which is no value at 2.20. The better angle is goals: we rate over 2.5 at 63%.
Two leaky, attack-minded sides meet after midweek cup exits, and Mainz's edge is too thin to back at the price. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Head to head
- 2023-08-12SV Elversberg 0–1 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal
- 2021-08-08SV Elversberg 2–2 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal
FAQ
Is Nadiem Amiri fit for Mainz at Elversberg?
He is a doubt: Amiri missed the cup tie at Bochum on 27 October with mild knee problems and Paul Nebel started instead.
Why not back Mainz to win?
We rate the away win at 44%, below our 55% threshold for a main pick.
Have Elversberg and Mainz met before?
Twice, both in the DFB-Pokal: a 2-2 draw in 2021 and a 1-0 Mainz win in 2023, five goals in total.
What is the best bet for SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.51, rated 63% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 63% for this match.
When does SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Fri 30 Oct, 19:30 UTC.