Win probability
22%Hamburger SV
25%Draw
53%VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga · Germany
Markets
Over 2.5 goals70%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Under 2.5 goals30%
Both teams score (GG)72%
Double chance X278%
Key factors
- ▼Key player out · Hamburger SVHAM
Captain Nicolai Remberg tore a cruciate ligament at Hoffenheim, needs surgery and is out for months. Fresh news this week, so close to full weight.
- ▼Fixture congestion · VfB StuttgartSTU
Stuttgart play their third match in eight days: at Paderborn on 10 October, at Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League on 14 October, then away at Hamburg on Saturday.
- ●Key defender out · VfB StuttgartSTU
Stuttgart left-back Maximilian Mittelstädt is out for now after a cut that needed stitches in the win at Paderborn; counted at half weight.
- ▼Karazor doubtfulSTU
Karazor went off injured in the Champions League and may have to be replaced, which would give youngster Yanik Spalt a first start.
- ▼Atakan Karazor doubtfulSTU
Karazor took a blow in the 0-2 at Galatasaray; Hoeneß said bleeding is visible and they must wait. With Stiller also out, 19-year-old Yanik Spalt could start against Werder.
- ▼Nicolas Capaldo doubtfulHAM
Defender Capaldo has a strain and is racing to be fit for the home game with Gladbach; Polzin may have to reshuffle again.
- ▼Remberg outHAM
Remberg listed absent (cruciate ligament tear) in the Bundesliga's matchday 8 personnel list.
- ▼Capaldo outHAM
Capaldo listed absent (muscular problems) in the Bundesliga's matchday 8 personnel list.
Preview
Hamburg won 3-2 at Hoffenheim last weekend with a stoppage-time winner, their first away win of the season. It came at a heavy price. Captain Nicolai Remberg tore a cruciate ligament in that game and will miss months after surgery. Striker Patson Daka and midfielder Albert Grønbæk are still out with muscle tears. HSV have conceded three goals a game on average this season, at home and away. Stuttgart arrive busy. They won 2-0 at Paderborn on Saturday, then 3-0 at Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League on Wednesday, with five changes to the side. Saturday is their third game in eight days. Left-back Maximilian Mittelstädt is out after a cut that needed stitches, while centre-back Jeff Chabot was cleared of a serious injury. Goals have followed this fixture: all of the last five meetings had three or more, including Stuttgart's 4-0 win in April. The bookmakers make Stuttgart clear favourites. We rate the away win at 53%, but the stronger angle is goals: we rate over 2.5 at 70%.
A leaky Hamburg defence, a busy Stuttgart side without Mittelstädt and a fixture that has produced three or more goals five times running all point to goals. Our surest pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.40, rated at 70%.
Head to head
- 2026-04-12VfB Stuttgart 4–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 2025-11-30Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 2023-06-05Hamburger SV 1–3 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- 2023-06-01VfB Stuttgart 3–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 2020-08-26VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
FAQ
Who is missing for Hamburg against Stuttgart?
Captain Nicolai Remberg is out for months with a cruciate ligament tear. Patson Daka and Albert Grønbæk are still recovering from muscle tears.
Who is favourite to win Hamburg vs Stuttgart?
Stuttgart are favourites. We rate an away win at 53%, the draw at 25% and a Hamburg win at 22%.
What is the best bet for Hamburg vs Stuttgart?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.40, which we rate at 70%. No bet is ever sure, so stake responsibly.
What is the best bet for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.40, rated 70% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 70% for this match.
When does Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 UTC.