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Bundesliga · Germany
Sure pickOver 2.5 goals
Odds1.69How over/under goals works →

Win probability

40%Hamburger SV
28%Draw
32%Borussia Mönchengladbach

Markets

Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Under 2.5 goals42%
Both teams score (GG)64%
Double chance 1X68%

Key factors

  • ▼
    Key player out · Hamburger SV

    Captain Nicolai Remberg suffered a knee injury at Hoffenheim on 10 Oct and has been out since, so half weight as a long-known absence.

    HAM
  • ▼
    Key player out · Borussia Mönchengladbach

    Captain Tim Kleindienst was reported out with a new muscle fibre tear on 16 Oct, more than 14 days ago, so half weight.

    MOE
  • ▼
    Backup goalkeeper · Borussia Mönchengladbach

    First-choice keeper Moritz Nicolas is confirmed out with a muscle strain, announced by Blessin this week, and Daniel Batz starts. Rule 9 at full weight.

    MOE
  • ●
    Key attacker out · Borussia Mönchengladbach

    Gladbach captain Kleindienst misses Hamburg with his second muscle fibre tear of the season; out since mid-October, so half weight.

    MOE
  • ●
    Cagey contest · Both teams

    Relegation six-pointer: Hamburg are 15th on 9 points, Gladbach 18th on 4 after 8 games, and the league preview calls the game a direction-setting duel.

    Both
  • ▼
    Nicolas Capaldo doubtful

    Defender Capaldo has a strain and is racing to be fit for the home game with Gladbach; Polzin may have to reshuffle again.

    HAM
  • ▼
    Moritz Nicolas out

    First-choice keeper misses the trip to Hamburg on 6 Nov with a muscle strain; 35-year-old Daniel Batz deputises again.

    MOE
  • ▼
    Nicolas Kuhn out

    Relapsed just after recovering from injury, Blessin confirmed; misses the Hamburg game on 6 Nov.

    MOE

Preview

Hamburg against Gladbach is a relegation six-pointer, and that is the one reason to expect nerves. Hamburg are 15th on 9 points and have lost three in a row, including two 3-1 defeats to Frankfurt. Gladbach are bottom on 4. Both defences leak: they have conceded 19 and 22 in 8 league games, the two worst records in the division. That is why the market leans to goals. Gladbach are without first-choice keeper Moritz Nicolas, who has a strain, so Daniel Batz starts. Batz kept clean sheets in the 2-0 cup win over Karlsruhe and the 0-0 with Paderborn, so this is no crisis, but it is a change at the back. Captain Tim Kleindienst, Nicolas Kühn and Hugo Bolin are out too. Hamburg lack captain Nicolai Remberg, while Yussuf Poulsen and Nicolas Capaldo are touch and go. The last two meetings both ended 0-0, but three of the last five had three goals or more, so we don't read a pattern. We rate over 2.5 goals at 58%. The result is tight: Hamburg 40%, draw 28%, Gladbach 32%.

Our verdict

Two of the league's leakiest defences meet, and Gladbach change their keeper again. Relegation nerves trim the number, but we still rate over 2.5 goals at 58%.

Head to head

  • 2026-01-17Hamburger SV 0–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 2025-08-24Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
  • 2018-05-12Hamburger SV 2–1 Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga
  • 2017-12-15Borussia Monchengladbach 3–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
  • 2017-03-12Hamburger SV 2–1 Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga

FAQ

Who is missing for Gladbach at Hamburg?

Keeper Moritz Nicolas, captain Tim Kleindienst, Nicolas Kühn and Hugo Bolin are all out. Daniel Batz starts in goal.

Why over 2.5 after two 0-0 draws?

Hamburg have conceded 19 in 8 league games and Gladbach 22. Two draws are not a pattern: three of the last five meetings had three or more goals.

Will Poulsen and Capaldo play for Hamburg?

It is unclear. Polzin said it will be tight, and the squad call comes after Thursday's final training.

What is the best bet for Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.69, rated 58% confidence. No bet is ever sure.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

We put the chance of three or more goals at 58% for this match.

When does Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?

Fri 06 Nov, 19:30 UTC.