FSV Mainz 05

Win probability

Markets

Key factors

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  Fixture congestion · Bayern München

  Bayern play their third match in eight days after Dortmund and Atlético Madrid away, closing a run of six straight midweek-game weeks.

  BAY
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  Starter out · Bayern München

  Saibari has a syndesmosis tear after the Dortmund game; Eberl estimates two to three months.

  BAY
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  Starter out · FSV Mainz 05

  Stefan Posch was sent off at Elversberg with a second yellow, so he is due to miss Bayern.

  MAI
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  Form & head-to-head · FSV Mainz 05

  Mainz lost three games in six days: 2-3 to Werder, 0-2 at Bochum in the cup and 1-4 at Elversberg.

  MAI
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  Mwene suspended

  Mwene is suspended after reaching his yellow-card limit.

  MAI
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  Musiala is listed as missing with a lack of training.

  Musiala is listed as missing with a lack of training.

  BAY
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  Ndiaye out

  Ndiaye is out after an appendix operation.

  BAY
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  Díaz is listed as missing with a lack of training after his muscle problem.

  Díaz is listed as missing with a lack of training after his muscle problem.

  BAY

Preview

Bayern top the table and are unbeaten in 15 competitive games this season, and they won 2-0 at Atlético Madrid on Tuesday with Neuer and Olise back in the side. Mainz come in reeling after three defeats in six days, the last a 4-1 loss at Elversberg in which Stefan Posch was sent off. Fischer was furious with how his team gave up those goals. Bayern are not at full strength. Saibari and Gnabry were both lost against Dortmund, Musiala and Díaz remain out, and assistant Aaron Danks is still in charge while Kompany recovers. This is also their third game in eight days. That keeps us below the market. Mainz do get Robin Zentner back in goal, and they have troubled Bayern at home recently: they beat them 2-1 in December 2024 and lost only 4-3 in April. All five recent meetings went over 2.5, with 21 goals. We rate the away win at 70.4%.

Head to head

• 2026-04-25FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
• 2025-12-14Bayern München 2–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
• 2025-04-26Bayern München 3–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
• 2024-12-14FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
• 2024-10-30FSV Mainz 05 0–4 Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal