Win probability
78%Bayern München
13%Draw
10%RB Leipzig
Bundesliga · Germany
Markets
Over 2.5 goals83%
Under 2.5 goals17%
Both teams score (GG)48%
Double chance 1X91%
Key factors
- ▼Musiala is listed as missing with a lack of training.BAY
Musiala is listed as missing with a lack of training.
- ▼Díaz is listed as missing with a lack of training after his muscle problem.BAY
Díaz is listed as missing with a lack of training after his muscle problem.
- ▼Guiu outLEI
Guiu is out with a muscle injury.
- ▲Baumgartner could make a league starting comeback and is in the predicted XI.LEI
Baumgartner could make a league starting comeback and is in the predicted XI.
- ▲Nkunku could make a league starting comeback and is in the predicted XI against Augsburg.LEI
Nkunku could make a league starting comeback and is in the predicted XI against Augsburg.
- ▼Ndiaye outBAY
Ndiaye is out after an appendix operation.
Preview
Bayern host Leipzig unbeaten in the Bundesliga: three wins and two draws from five games, and six goals per game at home. Their week was messy, though. On Tuesday they came from 2-0 down to lead 3-2 in Stavanger, with Harry Kane scoring twice, then drew 3-3 after Michael Olise was sent off. Kompany called it their own fault. Jamal Musiala is still on the injury list after his thigh problem. Leipzig arrive in better spirits. They thrashed Frankfurt 6-0 last Saturday, with a Christopher Nkunku hat-trick, and beat PSV 1-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday through a late Brajan Gruda goal. That eased the talk about coach Martín Demichelis. Away from home, though, Leipzig have scored 0.5 and conceded 2.5 per game this season. Bayern have won four and drawn one of the last five meetings, with 24 goals in those games. The bookmakers rate a Bayern win at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%. Both prices are too short for our rules, so there is no main pick here.
Bayern are clear favourites and goals look likely, but the win pays only 1.26 and over 2.5 goals just 1.15. Both are below our 1.30 minimum, so we publish no main pick.
Head to head
- 2026-08-15Bayern München 3–1 RB LeipzigFriendlies Clubs
- 2026-02-11Bayern München 2–0 RB LeipzigDFB Pokal
- 2026-01-17RB Leipzig 1–5 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 2025-08-22Bayern München 6–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
- 2025-05-03RB Leipzig 3–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
FAQ
Who is favourite for Bayern vs Leipzig?
Bayern, clearly. We rate a home win at 78%, the draw at 13% and a Leipzig win at 10%.
Is Musiala playing for Bayern against Leipzig?
Musiala is still listed as injured with a thigh problem, so he is not expected to feature.
Why is there no main pick for Bayern vs Leipzig?
Our likeliest outcomes, a Bayern win and over 2.5 goals, are priced at 1.26 and 1.15. Our rules need odds of at least 1.30, so we skip this one.
What is the best bet for Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
The market favourite is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.11, rated 86% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 83% for this match.
When does Bayern München vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 UTC.