Win probability
70%Bayern München
17%Draw
13%Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga · Germany
Markets
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals58%
Under 2.5 goals24%
Both teams score (GG)57%
Double chance 1X87%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · Bayern MünchenBAY
Luis Díaz will definitely miss the Klassiker; he has been out since tearing a small muscle bundle in his left hamstring against Arsenal.
- ▼Starter out · Borussia DortmundDOR
Emre Can is out with a torn ACL; he was already listed out in the matchday-5 preview on 8 October, so a long-known absence counts at half weight.
- ▼Guirassy outDOR
Guirassy misses Elversberg with a strain after going off in the Champions League win over Betis; Fábio Silva is the natural replacement.
- ▼Ndiaye outBAY
Ndiaye is out after an appendix operation.
- ▼Musiala is listed as missing with a lack of training.BAY
Musiala is listed as missing with a lack of training.
- ▼Díaz is listed as missing with a lack of training after his muscle problem.BAY
Díaz is listed as missing with a lack of training after his muscle problem.
- ▼Olise shook off the knee problem from the Dortmund game and played in the 2-0 win at Atlético, where Neuer also returned in goal after a foot injury; Díaz, Musiala, Saibari and Gnabry were missing.BAY
Olise shook off the knee problem from the Dortmund game and played in the 2-0 win at Atlético, where Neuer also returned in goal after a foot injury; Díaz, Musiala, Saibari and Gnabry were missing.
- ▼After his winner off the bench against Betis, Kovac unusually promised the 18-year-old a start in Saturday's league game with Elversberg.DOR
After his winner off the bench against Betis, Kovac unusually promised the 18-year-old a start in Saturday's league game with Elversberg.
Preview
First against second, both on 17 points, with Bayern ahead on goal difference. Bayern have scored 25 league goals, a record 18 of them at home at this stage of a season. Dortmund have conceded only six. Both won cup ties in midweek. Bayern beat Magdeburg 6-1 on Wednesday with Harry Kane rested on the bench and Michael Olise scoring twice. Dortmund edged Werder Bremen 3-2 on Tuesday through a stoppage-time Sabitzer free kick. Bayern are still without Vincent Kompany, who is recovering after his collapse, so assistant Aaron Danks picks the side. Luis Díaz is out, while Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlović and Manuel Neuer are uncertain. Danks expects Kimmich back this week. Dortmund are without Emre Can, so Nico Schlotterbeck wears the armband. History favours Bayern: they are unbeaten in the last five meetings, three wins and two draws, and both teams scored in all five. Gregor Kobel has never won a Bundesliga game against Bayern in ten tries. Taking out Díaz trims Bayern a little, and we rate the home win at 70%.
Bayern's home attack and their unbeaten record in the last five Klassiker meetings outweigh their absences. Our sure pick is the Bayern win at 70%.
Head to head
- 2026-08-22Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern MünchenSuper Cup
- 2026-02-28Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 2025-10-18Bayern München 2–1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 2025-04-12Bayern München 2–2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- 2024-11-30Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
FAQ
Who is missing for Bayern against Dortmund?
Luis Díaz is out. Kimmich, Pavlović and Neuer are uncertain, Musiala is pushing to return, and Kompany is not on the touchline while he recovers.
How have recent Bayern vs Dortmund games gone?
Bayern are unbeaten in the last five: three wins and two draws, with 17 goals in total and both teams scoring every time.
Did Bayern and Dortmund play in midweek?
Yes. Bayern beat Magdeburg 6-1 in the DFB-Pokal on 28 October, and Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 3-2 on 27 October.
What is the best bet for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our top pick is Bayern München to win at odds of 1.40, rated 70% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 76% for this match.
When does Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Sat 31 Oct, 17:30 UTC.