SureTips.ai
Bundesliga · Germany
Full time2–4
Market favouriteOver 2.5 goals
Odds1.30How over/under goals works →

Win probability

52%Bayer Leverkusen
23%Draw
24%VfB Stuttgart

Markets

Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals53%
Under 2.5 goals27%
Both teams score (GG)43%
Double chance 1X75%

Key factors

  • ▼
    Starter out · Bayer Leverkusen

    Winger Moussa Diaby has a fascia injury in his right hamstring from the Hoffenheim game and will not be available until after the November international break.

    BAY
  • ▼
    Starter out · Bayer Leverkusen

    Centre-back Loïc Badé took a head injury at Hoffenheim; Martínez said he is feeling better but ruled him out of the cup tie with Nürnberg. Counted at half weight as a doubt.

    BAY
  • ▼
    Starter out · VfB Stuttgart

    Josha Vagnoman strained his thigh against Atlético Madrid, came off after 52 minutes and is out for now.

    STU
  • ▼
    Doué is listed as missing with a lack of training.

    Doué is listed as missing with a lack of training.

    BAY
  • ▼
    Karazor doubtful

    Karazor went off injured in the Champions League and may have to be replaced, which would give youngster Yanik Spalt a first start.

    STU
  • ▼
    Atakan Karazor doubtful

    Karazor took a blow in the 0-2 at Galatasaray; Hoeneß said bleeding is visible and they must wait. With Stiller also out, 19-year-old Yanik Spalt could start against Werder.

    STU
  • ▼
    Martínez hopes Ben Seghir and Guéla Doué return after the international break but would not commit, no decision had been made on Kofane, and Eichhorn is back in training taking it step by step.

    Martínez hopes Ben Seghir and Guéla Doué return after the international break but would not commit, no decision had been made on Kofane, and Eichhorn is back in training taking it step by step.

    BAY
  • ▲
    Martínez said Badé was back in the squad for the Marseille game after his head injury, with Mark Flekken in goal.

    Martínez said Badé was back in the squad for the Marseille game after his head injury, with Mark Flekken in goal.

    BAY

Preview

Leverkusen sit fourth on 13 points and have been hard to break down at home, conceding 0.33 goals per game at the BayArena while scoring 2.67. They come into Saturday after a mixed week: a 0-3 defeat at Hoffenheim, then a 5-2 cup win over Nürnberg after trailing 0-2. Moussa Diaby is out until after the November international break with a hamstring fascia injury, and centre-back Loïc Badé is a doubt after a head injury at Hoffenheim. Martin Terrier remains out with a hamstring problem. Stuttgart are 15th with six points and have lost five of seven league games. They did reach the cup's last 16 on Wednesday, beating ten-man Paderborn 1-0 with Deniz Undav's stoppage-time goal. Josha Vagnoman is out with a thigh strain. History favours the visitors lately: Stuttgart won both 2026 meetings, 3-1 at home and 4-1 at the BayArena. Four of the last five meetings had three or more goals, 20 in total. We rate a Leverkusen win at 52%, which is not enough for a main pick at 1.85.

Our verdict

Leverkusen are the stronger side at home, but injuries to Diaby and Badé trim their edge to 52%, and the goals market is priced too short. No main pick on this one.

Head to head

  • 2026-05-09VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • 2026-01-10Bayer Leverkusen 1–4 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 2025-03-16VfB Stuttgart 3–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
  • 2024-11-01Bayer Leverkusen 0–0 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
  • 2024-08-17Bayer Leverkusen 2–2 VfB StuttgartSuper Cup

FAQ

Is Moussa Diaby fit for Leverkusen against Stuttgart?

No. He hurt his right hamstring at Hoffenheim and will not be back until after the November international break.

What happened in recent Leverkusen v Stuttgart games?

Stuttgart won both 2026 meetings, 3-1 at home in May and 4-1 at Leverkusen in January. Four of the last five meetings produced three or more goals.

Why is there no pick?

We rate Leverkusen's win at 52%, under our 55% bar, and over 2.5 goals at 1.30 is too short for our 73% rating.

What is the best bet for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?

The market favourite is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.30, rated 73% by the market. No bet is ever sure.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

We put the chance of three or more goals at 73% for this match.

When does Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?

Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 UTC.