Win probability
23%Venezia
24%Draw
54%Napoli
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals58%
Under 2.5 goals42%
Both teams score (GG)58%
Double chance X278%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · NapoliNAP
Napoli play their third match in eight days: Frosinone at home on 10 October, a 3-1 Champions League defeat at Villarreal on 13 October, then Venezia on Saturday.
- ▲New manager · VeneziaVEN
Venezia sacked Giovanni Stroppa after six straight defeats and appointed Davide Nicola, whose first game is this home match against Napoli.
- ●Key defender out · NapoliNAP
Napoli's first-choice centre-back Buongiorno is still out (sidelined since the summer), weakening their back line; half weight as a long-known absence.
- ▼Olivera doubtfulNAP
Olivera has a muscle complaint; Sky's preview has him sidelined for Lazio, while its injury list calls him doubtful.
- ▲Hojlund is back up front for the Lazio game.NAP
Hojlund is back up front for the Lazio game.
- ▼Marianucci suspendedNAP
Marianucci serves a one-match ban and misses Lazio.
- ▼Di Lorenzo doubtfulNAP
The captain's adductor problem from the Juventus game leaves him doubtful for the Lazio match on Sunday.
- ▼Luca Marianucci suspendedNAP
Marianucci is banned for one game and misses Lazio, thinning a defence already short of bodies.
Preview
Venezia are bottom of Serie A with zero points from six games, and they have conceded 2.67 goals per game both home and away. The 3-1 loss at Atalanta on Monday cost Giovanni Stroppa his job. Davide Nicola was appointed on Wednesday, and this is his first game in charge. Napoli arrive tired and stung. They beat Frosinone 3-0 on 10 October, with Kevin De Bruyne scoring twice, then lost 3-1 at Villarreal in the Champions League on Tuesday. This is their third match in eight days. Max Allegri said his side create plenty but concede too much, and warned they must treat this trip with respect. Napoli are still without centre-back Alessandro Buongiorno, out since the summer, and Vergara is injured too. One caution: the last four meetings all had two goals or fewer. But these squads have changed, and the current numbers point to goals. We rate over 2.5 goals at 58% and a Napoli win at 54%.
A leaky Venezia defence and a tired Napoli side that concedes too often point to goals. Our surest pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.76, rated at 58%.
Head to head
- 2025-03-16Venezia 0–0 NapoliSerie A
- 2024-12-29Napoli 1–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 2022-02-06Venezia 0–2 NapoliSerie A
- 2021-08-22Napoli 2–0 VeneziaSerie A
FAQ
Who is Venezia's new manager?
Davide Nicola replaced the sacked Giovanni Stroppa this week. The Napoli game is his first in charge.
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Napoli?
Napoli are favourites. We rate an away win at 54%, the draw at 24% and a Venezia win at 23%.
What is the best bet for Venezia vs Napoli?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, which we rate at 58%. No bet is ever sure, so stake responsibly.
What is the best bet for Venezia vs Napoli?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, rated 58% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 58% for this match.
When does Venezia vs Napoli kick off?
Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 UTC.