Win probability
23%Genoa
28%Draw
49%AC Milan
Serie A · Italy
Market view: probabilities from 24 bookmakers' odds, margin removed. Researched picks publish up to 48 hours before kickoff, only when our checks clear one. How we make predictions.
Markets
Over 2.5 goals46%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Both teams score (GG)48%
Double chance X277%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · AC MilanMIL
Tomori was lost to a right thigh problem during the 28 October game against Bologna, a recent blow to Milan's defence.
- ▼Conditions · AC MilanMIL
Milan played Ferencvaros on Thursday and have three days to recover. Amorim said the squad was not mentally ready for games every three days.
- ▲Form & head-to-head · GenoaGEN
Genoa have won three straight and taken 12 points from their last five, and got Havel and Venturino back in group training this week.
- ▼Tomori outMIL
Tomori has a right thigh lesion and is due back at the end of November.
- ▼Sky expect Maignan, Gila, Modric, Moreira and Pulisic to return to the starting XI against Genoa.MIL
Sky expect Maignan, Gila, Modric, Moreira and Pulisic to return to the starting XI against Genoa.
- ▼Pavlovic doubtfulMIL
Pavlovic was still training apart on Friday; a decision on his call-up for Genoa comes on Saturday.
- ▼Chukwueze outMIL
Chukwueze had left hip surgery in London and is not expected to be available before February.
- ▼After the 2-0 home loss to Ferencvaros, Amorim blamed attitude, called the first half the worst he could recall and accepted he may have erred in the build-up.MIL
After the 2-0 home loss to Ferencvaros, Amorim blamed attitude, called the first half the worst he could recall and accepted he may have erred in the build-up.
Preview
Genoa have found their feet. They won three straight in a week, took 12 points from their last five and have only Nuredini missing now that Havel and Venturino are back in group training. Milan arrive with a confusing week behind them. They beat Inter 3-1, then lost 2-0 at home to Ferencvaros on Thursday, with no shot on target in the first half. Amorim rotated for that game and said Milan have to improve. Corriere dello Sport expected him to return to his strongest XI at Marassi. Tomori is out until the end of November, and Saelemaekers, Gabbia, Loftus-Cheek and Chukwueze are also missing. Milan remain fifth with 21 points and are unbeaten in the last five meetings, with two wins and three draws. We cut them to 49%, with the draw at 28% and Genoa at 23%. Goals give no clear angle: under 2.5 sits at 54%, and three of the last five meetings went over. The forecast is windy, with gusts near 25 km/h at kick-off, but no rain. Nothing reaches our 55% bar, so there is no pick here.
Milan are the better side but come off a bad week against a Genoa team on a run. At 49% they fall short of our bar, so there is no pick.
Head to head
- 2026-05-17Genoa 1–2 AC MilanSerie A
- 2026-01-08AC Milan 1–1 GenoaSerie A
- 2025-05-05Genoa 1–2 AC MilanSerie A
- 2024-12-15AC Milan 0–0 GenoaSerie A
- 2024-05-05AC Milan 3–3 GenoaSerie A
FAQ
Will Milan rotate again?
Corriere dello Sport expected Amorim to go back to his strongest XI after resting players against Ferencvaros.
Who is missing for Genoa?
ANSA lists only Nuredini as unavailable after Havel and Venturino returned to group training.
Why no pick?
No priced outcome reaches 55%. Milan to win is under 50% and under 2.5 goals is about 54%.
What is the best bet for Genoa vs AC Milan?
The market favourite is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, rated 54% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 46% for this match.
When does Genoa vs AC Milan kick off?
Sun 08 Nov, 14:00 UTC.