Win probability
28%Fiorentina
30%Draw
42%Juventus
Serie A · Italy
Market view: probabilities from 24 bookmakers' odds, margin removed. Researched picks publish up to 48 hours before kickoff, only when our checks clear one. How we make predictions.
Markets
Over 2.5 goals50%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Both teams score (GG)48%
Double chance X272%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · JuventusJUV
Juventus travelled to AZ Alkmaar for a Thursday Europa League game and play at Fiorentina on Sunday evening, the house-rule case of a short turnaround after a Thursday European away match.
- ▼Key player out · JuventusJUV
Yildiz is named among Juventus's long-term injuries, so he counts as a key absence at half weight: the market has had time to adjust.
- ▼Starter out · JuventusJUV
McKennie was left out of the squad for AZ with muscle fatigue after leaving the Napoli game. Doubtful, so half weight.
- ▼Starter out · FiorentinaFIO
Sky lists Ranieri as a doubt for Juventus with a foot problem. Doubtful, so half weight.
- ●Cagey contest · Both teamsBoth
Fiorentina v Juventus is a fierce rivalry, so the derby rule applies. La Nazione calls it the week of Juventus, with the Franchi heading for a sell-out.
- ●Key attacker out · JuventusJUV
Yildiz is named among Juventus's long-term injuries. Half weight, as the market has had time to adjust.
- ●Key defender out · FiorentinaFIO
Sky lists Pongracic as out until the end of November, which thins the Fiorentina back line. Counted at a small weight.
- ▼Celik doubtfulJUV
Celik is being monitored; Juventus hope to have him at least on the bench against Fiorentina, but nothing is decided.
Preview
Fiorentina are 16th with 8 points but won 4-2 at Sassuolo last time out. Juventus sit seventh on 17 and arrive in decent form, with a 2-0 win over Napoli and a 2-1 victory at AZ Alkmaar on Thursday. That Thursday trip is the catch. Juventus have just three days to turn around before a Sunday night game in Florence, and we take points off their win chance for it. Spalletti is also badly short of players. Yildiz, Khephren Thuram, Locatelli, Conceicao, Nico Gonzalez and Celik are all out, and McKennie is a doubt after missing the AZ game with muscle fatigue. Fiorentina have problems of their own. Pongracic and Parisi are out, Atta is expected back after the break, and Ranieri is a doubt. The Franchi should still be sold out. History favours the hosts here: Fiorentina are unbeaten in the last four meetings. Only two of the last five went over 2.5 goals. We rate Juventus at 42.2%, which is below our bar for a pick. This is a fierce rivalry, so we lower the goals numbers too.
No main pick. Juventus are favourites at 42.2%, but injuries and the Thursday trip keep them under our 55% minimum, and no goals market clears it either.
Head to head
- 2026-05-17Juventus 0–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2025-11-22Fiorentina 1–1 JuventusSerie A
- 2025-03-16Fiorentina 3–0 JuventusSerie A
- 2024-12-29Juventus 2–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2024-04-07Juventus 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A
FAQ
Who is missing for Juventus at Fiorentina?
Sky lists Yildiz, Thuram, Locatelli, Conceicao, Nico Gonzalez and Celik as out. McKennie is a doubt with an adductor problem.
What is the recent record between Fiorentina and Juventus?
Fiorentina are unbeaten in the last four meetings, with two wins and two draws. The last five produced 12 goals.
Why is there no pick for this match?
No market we can price reaches 55%. Juventus are closest at 42.2%.
What is the best bet for Fiorentina vs Juventus?
The market favourite is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.84, rated 54% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 50% for this match.
When does Fiorentina vs Juventus kick off?
Sun 08 Nov, 19:45 UTC.