Win probability
22%Udinese
27%Draw
51%AC Milan
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals50%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Both teams score (GG)46%
Double chance X278%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · AC MilanMIL
Milan travel to Udine after a Thursday Europa League away game at Bournemouth, lost 3-0 with ten men, and the club notes less than 72 hours before this match (house rule 2).
- ▼Tomori outMIL
Tomori has a right thigh lesion and is due back at the end of November.
- ▼Pavlovic doubtfulMIL
Pavlovic was still training apart on Friday; a decision on his call-up for Genoa comes on Saturday.
- ▼Chukwueze outMIL
Chukwueze had left hip surgery in London and is not expected to be available before February.
- ▼Sky expect Maignan, Gila, Modric, Moreira and Pulisic to return to the starting XI against Genoa.MIL
Sky expect Maignan, Gila, Modric, Moreira and Pulisic to return to the starting XI against Genoa.
- ▼At his unveiling Zanetti said only players who run and work hard will get picked, and that he is ready to move away from a back four.UDI
At his unveiling Zanetti said only players who run and work hard will get picked, and that he is ready to move away from a back four.
- ▼After the 2-0 home loss to Ferencvaros, Amorim blamed attitude, called the first half the worst he could recall and accepted he may have erred in the build-up.MIL
After the 2-0 home loss to Ferencvaros, Amorim blamed attitude, called the first half the worst he could recall and accepted he may have erred in the build-up.
Preview
Udinese are in a deep hole. Five straight league defeats, the last a 3-0 home loss to Lecce, leave them 16th on 4 points, and they have scored just 0.5 goals per game at home. The club kept faith in Kosta Runjaic after an ownership review, so he stays on the bench for this one. David Alaba is ruled out with a calf problem, while Bayo and Gueye are also unavailable; Zaniolo is back in the squad but not sure to start. Milan arrive 5th and unbeaten in the league, but their week went badly: a 3-0 Europa League defeat at Bournemouth on Thursday, with Maignan sent off. That red card only applies in Europe, so he can play here. The bigger issue is fatigue, with fewer than three days to recover. History favours the visitors: Milan won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including 3-0 and 4-0 wins in Udine. We rate a Milan win at 51%, just short of our pick threshold, so we publish the preview without a main pick.
Milan are the clear favourites against a struggling Udinese, but a Thursday trip to Bournemouth leaves them at 51% in our numbers. No outcome reaches our 55% bar, so no main pick.
Head to head
- 2026-04-11AC Milan 0–3 UdineseSerie A
- 2025-09-20Udinese 0–3 AC MilanSerie A
- 2025-04-11Udinese 0–4 AC MilanSerie A
- 2024-10-19AC Milan 1–0 UdineseSerie A
- 2024-01-20Udinese 2–3 AC MilanSerie A
FAQ
Is Mike Maignan available for Udinese vs Milan?
Yes. His red card at Bournemouth came in the Europa League, so the ban applies to European games only.
Who is missing for Udinese?
David Alaba is out with a calf problem, and Bayo and Gueye are unavailable. Zaniolo is back in the squad.
How have recent meetings gone?
Milan won 4 of the last 5 meetings, but Udinese won the most recent one 3-0 at San Siro in April 2026. Four of those five games had three or more goals.
What is the best bet for Udinese vs AC Milan?
The market favourite is AC Milan to win at odds of 1.88, rated 53% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 50% for this match.
When does Udinese vs AC Milan kick off?
Sun 25 Oct, 19:45 UTC.