Serie A · ItalyMon 02 Nov, 17:30 UTC

Sassuolo

LLLLD

Full time2–4

Fiorentina

WDLLL

Sure pickOver 2.5 goals

Odds1.60How over/under goals works →

Win probability

33%Sassuolo

27%Draw

40%Fiorentina

Markets

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Under 2.5 goals40%

Both teams score (GG)81%

Double chance X267%

Key factors

▼
Starter out · Sassuolo
Thorstvedt is banned after his red card against Lazio, so Aquilani has to change his midfield, with Adzic coming back into the side.
SAS
▼
Starter out · Fiorentina
Centre-back Pongracic has a tear in his right hamstring and is not due back until after the international break.
FIO
▲
Thorstvedt is back after a one-match ban and will start.
Thorstvedt is back after a one-match ban and will start.
SAS
▼
Berardi doubtful
Berardi is unwell and at strong risk of missing Roma.
SAS
▼
Idzes out
Idzes listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
SAS
▼
Koné out
Koné listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
SAS
▼
Boloca out
Boloca listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
SAS
▼
Ranieri out
Ranieri listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
FIO

Preview

Two leaky defences meet at the Mapei Stadium on Monday evening. Sassuolo concede 2.5 goals a game at home and lost 6-2 to Lazio last time out. Kristian Thorstvedt was sent off in that game and is now suspended. Fedde Leysen (torn ACL) and Ismaël Koné (broken tibia and fibula) are long-term absentees, and Sky says Nemanja Matic's full recovery is not certain. Fiorentina have five points from nine games, three behind their hosts, and concede 2.5 goals a game away from home. Centre-back Marin Pongracic has a hamstring tear and is out until after the international break. Luca Ranieri is doubtful with a foot problem, and Arthur Atta and Fabiano Parisi are also missing. Viery is expected to partner Dragusin again. The last five meetings produced 15 goals, and three of them went over 2.5. The market rates over 2.5 goals at 60%. We found no sourced reason to move the goals numbers, so we back that line at 1.60.

Our verdict

Both sides concede around 2.5 goals a game, and Fiorentina are without centre-back Pongracic. We rate over 2.5 goals at 60%.

Head to head

2026-04-26Fiorentina 0–0 SassuoloSerie A
2025-12-06Sassuolo 3–1 FiorentinaSerie A
2024-04-28Fiorentina 5–1 SassuoloSerie A
2024-01-06Sassuolo 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A
2023-06-02Sassuolo 1–3 FiorentinaSerie A

FAQ

Who is missing for Sassuolo against Fiorentina?

Kristian Thorstvedt is suspended, and Fedde Leysen (torn ACL) and Ismaël Koné (broken tibia and fibula) are out long term. Nemanja Matic's full recovery is not yet certain.

Who is missing for Fiorentina?

Marin Pongracic (hamstring tear), Arthur Atta and Fabiano Parisi are out, and Luca Ranieri is doubtful with a foot problem.

What is the pick for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.60. We rate it at 60%: both defences concede around 2.5 goals a game, and three of the last five meetings went over 2.5.

What is the best bet for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.60, rated 60% confidence. No bet is ever sure.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

We put the chance of three or more goals at 60% for this match.

When does Sassuolo vs Fiorentina kick off?

Mon 02 Nov, 17:30 UTC.