Win probability
32%Parma
30%Draw
38%Udinese
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals43%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Both teams score (GG)70%
Double chance X268%
Key factors
- ●Cagey contest · Both teamsBoth
Messaggero Veneto calls this a relegation play-off: Parma (19th) and Udinese (17th) both have 4 points, and Udinese have lost six league games in a row. A bottom-of-the-table six-pointer tends to be tight.
- ●Key defender out · UdineseUDI
Sky's matchday-9 list rules Udinese centre-backs Solet (leg problem) and Alaba (calf strain) out of the Parma game. Solet had been set to start in the back three, so Udinese's defence is weakened; counted below the full weight because they already played Milan without both.
- ▼Bernabe outPAR
Bernabe misses Bologna with a left rectus femoris problem and is expected back at the end of November.
- ▼Drobnic outPAR
Drobnic is out against Bologna with plantar fasciitis.
- ▼Udinese sacked coach Kosta Runjaic with the side second-bottom on 5 points after ten rounds, and appointed Paolo Zanetti on a deal to June 2027.UDI
Udinese sacked coach Kosta Runjaic with the side second-bottom on 5 points after ten rounds, and appointed Paolo Zanetti on a deal to June 2027.
- ▼Bernabé outPAR
Bernabé has a low-grade left rectus femoris strain, misses Bologna and is expected back at the end of November.
- ▼At his unveiling Zanetti said only players who run and work hard will get picked, and that he is ready to move away from a back four.UDI
At his unveiling Zanetti said only players who run and work hard will get picked, and that he is ready to move away from a back four.
- ▼Alaba outUDI
Alaba listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
Preview
This is a relegation scrap at the Tardini. Parma (19th) and Udinese (17th) both have 4 points from eight games, and Messaggero Veneto calls it a relegation play-off. Udinese lost 2-0 at home to Milan on Sunday, their sixth league defeat in a row, and they have scored 9 and conceded 18. The club says it still backs Kosta Runjaic, but this game and Roma at home on Saturday are seen as decisive. Udinese will be without Solet and Alaba at the back, and Zanoli is a big doubt. Parma lost 2-1 at Lazio on Saturday, and Gilardino said his side conceded far too easily after the break. Almqvist, Nicolussi Caviglia and Elphege remain out. Parma average 0.75 goals a game at home. The last five meetings were split: three stayed under 2.5 goals (1-0, 0-2, 1-0) and two went over (2-3 and 2-2). Udinese's defence is thin, which keeps us from going further, but with so much at stake for both sides we expect a nervy, low-scoring game and rate under 2.5 goals at 57.3%.
Two sides on 4 points meet in an early relegation six-pointer, and fear of losing should keep it tight. Under 2.5 goals is our pick at 57.3%.
Head to head
- 2026-04-18Udinese 0–1 ParmaSerie A
- 2025-11-29Parma 0–2 UdineseSerie A
- 2025-03-01Udinese 1–0 ParmaSerie A
- 2024-09-16Parma 2–3 UdineseSerie A
- 2021-02-21Parma 2–2 UdineseSerie A
FAQ
Who is missing for Parma against Udinese?
Almqvist (calf), Nicolussi Caviglia (groin pain) and Elphege (after appendicitis surgery) are all out.
Who is missing for Udinese?
Solet and Alaba are ruled out, Bayo and Gueye remain sidelined, and Zanoli is a big doubt.
How have recent Parma vs Udinese games gone?
Udinese won three of the last five meetings, Parma won one and one was drawn. Three of the five had under 2.5 goals.
What is the best bet for Parma vs Udinese?
Our top pick is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, rated 57% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 43% for this match.
When does Parma vs Udinese kick off?
Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 UTC.