Win probability
22%Monza
24%Draw
54%Napoli
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals56%
Under 2.5 goals44%
Both teams score (GG)62%
Double chance X278%
Key factors
- ●Key defender out · NapoliNAP
Napoli's back line is short: Badiashile has a medium-grade thigh tear (about a month out), Spinazzola is out, and Di Lorenzo is a big doubt with a knee contusion. Counted at half weight because Rrahmani is back from flu.
- ▼Olivera doubtfulNAP
Olivera has a muscle complaint; Sky's preview has him sidelined for Lazio, while its injury list calls him doubtful.
- ▼Folorunsho outMON
Sky now list Folorunsho as unavailable for Atalanta with his calf problem.
- ▲Carboni is aiming to return from the start against Atalanta.MON
Carboni is aiming to return from the start against Atalanta.
- ▲Hojlund is back up front for the Lazio game.NAP
Hojlund is back up front for the Lazio game.
- ▼Marianucci suspendedNAP
Marianucci serves a one-match ban and misses Lazio.
- ▼Di Lorenzo doubtfulNAP
The captain's adductor problem from the Juventus game leaves him doubtful for the Lazio match on Sunday.
Preview
Napoli arrive in Monza without their coach and with a patched-up defence. Massimiliano Allegri was handed a two-match ban after his red card in Saturday's 3-3 draw with Roma, so he misses this game and Juventus on Sunday; Napoli are appealing. Badiashile is out for about a month, Spinazzola misses the trip, and Di Lorenzo is a big doubt with a knee knock, although Rrahmani is back in full training. Buongiorno, Alisson Santos, Favasuli and Neres are also out. Napoli sit 10th on 11 points. Monza are 15th on 7 points and lost 3-2 at Torino on Friday, but they have been lively at home, scoring 2.67 and conceding 1.33 goals a game. Ziolkowski, Maye and Pessina are missing for Juric. One note of caution: four of the last five meetings stayed under 2.5 goals. With Monza scoring freely at home and Napoli's back line thin after a six-goal game, we rate over 2.5 goals at 56.5%.
Monza score freely at home and Napoli's defence is stretched, with Allegri banned from the bench. Over 2.5 goals is our pick at 56.5%.
Head to head
- 2025-04-19Monza 0–1 NapoliSerie A
- 2024-09-29Napoli 2–0 MonzaSerie A
- 2024-04-07Monza 2–4 NapoliSerie A
- 2023-12-29Napoli 0–0 MonzaSerie A
- 2023-05-14Monza 2–0 NapoliSerie A
FAQ
Is Allegri on the bench for Monza vs Napoli?
No. He received a two-match ban after his red card against Roma, covering Monza and Juventus. Napoli have said they will appeal.
Who is missing for Napoli?
Badiashile, Spinazzola, Buongiorno, Alisson Santos, Favasuli and Neres are out, and Di Lorenzo is a big doubt.
How have recent Monza vs Napoli games gone?
Napoli won three of the last five meetings, Monza won one and one was drawn. Four of the five had under 2.5 goals.
What is the best bet for Monza vs Napoli?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.79, rated 56% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 56% for this match.
When does Monza vs Napoli kick off?
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 UTC.