Win probability
37%Monza
31%Draw
32%Cagliari
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals46%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Both teams score (GG)52%
Double chance 1X68%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · MonzaMON
Defender Lucchesi is suspended for this match; Sky Sport expects Goglichidze to take his place in the back three.
- ▼Obert suspendedCAG
Obert serves a one-match ban and misses Frosinone.
- ▲Carboni is aiming to return from the start against Atalanta.MON
Carboni is aiming to return from the start against Atalanta.
- ▼Folorunsho outMON
Sky now list Folorunsho as unavailable for Atalanta with his calf problem.
- ▼Nzola outCAG
Nzola has a flexor strain and is out until at least the end of November.
- ▼Fadera outCAG
Fadera is out until at least the end of November with a biceps femoris lesion.
- ▼Folorunsho doubtfulMON
Folorunsho's calf problem leaves him a doubt for the home game with Atalanta.
Preview
Monza host Cagliari at the Brianteo with the two sides heading in opposite directions. Monza are 15th on 4 points from six games, with one win, and lost 3-1 at Lazio last time out. Cagliari are 7th on 13 points, unbeaten in their last four league games after a 1-1 draw with Juventus, and have conceded just 0.33 goals per game away from home. Monza lose defender Lucchesi to suspension, so Goglichidze is expected to step into the back three; Pessina, Ziolkowski and Toure remain on the injury list. Cagliari are without Felici and Idrissi, and Sky Sport expects Nzola to partner Mendy up front. In the last four meetings Cagliari won twice, Monza once, and one ended level, with exactly two of the four going over 2.5 goals. The bookmakers make Monza slight favourites at home, but the margins are thin everywhere: we rate the home win at 37%, the draw at 31% and the away win at 32%. Under 2.5 goals is the most likely goals outcome at 54%, just short of our bar for a main pick.
A tight, low-margin game with no outcome strong enough for a main pick. Under 2.5 goals at 54% is the closest call.
Head to head
- 2025-03-30Cagliari 3–0 MonzaSerie A
- 2025-01-05Monza 1–2 CagliariSerie A
- 2024-03-16Monza 1–0 CagliariSerie A
- 2023-11-26Cagliari 1–1 MonzaSerie A
FAQ
Who is missing for Monza against Cagliari?
Lucchesi is suspended, and Pessina, Ziolkowski and Toure are on the injury list.
Why is there no pick for Monza vs Cagliari?
No priced market reaches our 55% probability threshold; the result is close to a three-way split.
How have recent meetings gone?
Of the last four meetings Cagliari won two, Monza one, and one was a draw; two of the four had three or more goals.
What is the best bet for Monza vs Cagliari?
The market favourite is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.84, rated 54% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 46% for this match.
When does Monza vs Cagliari kick off?
Mon 19 Oct, 16:30 UTC.