Serie A · ItalySun 01 Nov, 17:00 UTC

Lecce

LLLWL

Full time1–2

Genoa

WWWLW

Sure pickUnder 2.5 goals

Odds1.63How over/under goals works →

Win probability

26%Lecce

33%Draw

41%Genoa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals40%

Under 2.5 goals60%

Both teams score (GG)47%

Double chance X274%

Key factors

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Starter out · Lecce
Forward Pierotti, described as an almost ever-present starter, has a fractured right ankle and faces a long layoff.
LEC
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Starter out · Lecce
Defender Gaspar, sent off against Juventus, was given a two-match ban, which covers the Frosinone game and this one.
LEC
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Form & head-to-head · Lecce
Lecce were beaten 5-1 at Frosinone on Thursday, their second straight defeat after losing 2-0 at home to Juventus.
LEC
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Coulibaly has done part of the sessions with the group and could start at once.
Coulibaly has done part of the sessions with the group and could start at once.
LEC
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Coulibaly is recovering from his first-degree hamstring tear and could be back in the squad for Torino.
Coulibaly is recovering from his first-degree hamstring tear and could be back in the squad for Torino.
LEC
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Pierotti out
Pierotti listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
LEC
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Havel out
Havel listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
GEN
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Ehizibue out
Ehizibue listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
GEN

Preview

Two lower-mid-table sides meet in Salento in opposite moods. Genoa beat Juventus 2-0 on Wednesday, after a 1-0 win over Venezia, and sit 13th on 10 points. Lecce are 14th on 9 after a 5-1 thrashing at Frosinone on Thursday and a 2-0 home loss to Juventus before that. Di Francesco is short of bodies: Gaspar serves the second game of a two-match ban, forward Pierotti has a fractured ankle, and midfielders Coulibaly and Ilic are injured. That tilts the result towards Genoa, whom we now rate at 41%, but De Rossi's side have been toothless on the road, scoring 0.33 goals per away game. Lecce score 1.0 per home game. The risk for the under is Lecce's defence, which has conceded 2.5 per home game. This fixture has been tight: the last five meetings produced 7 goals, with two 0-0 draws and three of the five under 2.5. The market rates under 2.5 at 60%, and we agree. It is the likeliest priced outcome, so it is our pick.

Our verdict

Genoa's blunt away attack and a low-scoring recent head-to-head make under 2.5 goals the likeliest outcome at 60%. Lecce's leaky home defence is the main risk.

Head to head

2026-05-24Lecce 1–0 GenoaSerie A
2025-08-23Genoa 0–0 LecceSerie A
2025-03-14Genoa 2–1 LecceSerie A
2025-01-05Lecce 0–0 GenoaSerie A
2024-01-28Genoa 2–1 LecceSerie A

FAQ

What is the pick for Lecce vs Genoa?

Under 2.5 goals at 1.63. We rate it at 60%.

Who is missing for Lecce?

Gaspar is suspended, Pierotti has a fractured ankle, and Coulibaly and Ilic are injured.

How have recent Lecce vs Genoa games gone?

The last five meetings produced 7 goals in total: two 0-0 draws, a 1-0 Lecce win and two 2-1 Genoa wins.

What is the best bet for Lecce vs Genoa?

Our top pick is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.63, rated 60% confidence. No bet is ever sure.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

We put the chance of three or more goals at 40% for this match.

When does Lecce vs Genoa kick off?

Sun 01 Nov, 17:00 UTC.