Win probability
55%Juventus
26%Draw
19%Lazio
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals49%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Both teams score (GG)36%
Double chance 1X81%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · JuventusJUV
Juventus played away at Celta Vigo in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October (won 2-1) and return to host Lazio on Sunday: house rule 2, travelling after a Thursday European away game.
- ▼Celik doubtfulJUV
Celik is being monitored; Juventus hope to have him at least on the bench against Fiorentina, but nothing is decided.
- ▲McKennie has shaken off the problem that kept him out against AZ and returns to the side for Fiorentina.JUV
McKennie has shaken off the problem that kept him out against AZ and returns to the side for Fiorentina.
- ▼Conceicao doubtfulJUV
Conceicao, who dislocated a shoulder, is also being monitored for a possible bench place against Fiorentina.
- ▲Pinamonti is ready to resume his place up front.LAZ
Pinamonti is ready to resume his place up front.
- ▼Zaccagni outLAZ
Zaccagni has a left quadriceps lesion, misses Napoli and risks about a month out; he will be assessed after the break.
- ▼Tuttosport says Boga could start at Fiorentina on Sunday so that Alajbegovic, who has played a lot lately, gets a rest.JUV
Tuttosport says Boga could start at Fiorentina on Sunday so that Alajbegovic, who has played a lot lately, gets a rest.
Preview
Lazio arrive in Turin second in Serie A with 16 points from six games, unbeaten (five wins, one draw). Juventus are sixth on 11 points but tough at home, conceding 0.33 goals per game at the Allianz Stadium. The bianconeri are also coming off a Thursday night in Spain: they came from behind to beat Celta Vigo 2-1 in the Europa League, with Woltemade and a stoppage-time Kolo Muani goal. That short turnaround costs them a little in our numbers. Juve are still without Yildiz, Locatelli and Khephren Thuram, while Boga could be back in the squad. Lazio miss Gudmundsson with a shoulder injury, and Rovella and Marusic are both in doubt. The last five meetings are split: Juve won one, Lazio two, and two were drawn, with three of the five finishing under 2.5 goals. The market makes Juventus clear favourites; we rate the home win at 55%, a shade under our threshold, so there is no main pick here.
Juventus are rightly favoured at home, but the Thursday trip to Vigo and an in-form, unbeaten Lazio keep the home win just under 55%. No main pick: watch the market view instead.
Head to head
- 2026-02-08Juventus 2–2 LazioSerie A
- 2025-10-26Lazio 1–0 JuventusSerie A
- 2025-05-10Lazio 1–1 JuventusSerie A
- 2024-10-19Juventus 1–0 LazioSerie A
- 2024-04-23Lazio 2–1 JuventusCoppa Italia
FAQ
Who is missing for Juventus vs Lazio?
Juventus are without Yildiz, Locatelli and Khephren Thuram, with Boga close to a return. Lazio miss Gudmundsson, and Rovella and Marusic are doubtful.
How have recent Juventus vs Lazio games gone?
Over the last five meetings Juventus won one, Lazio two, and two were drawn. Three of the five finished under 2.5 goals.
Why is there no main pick?
Our final probability for a Juventus win is just under 55%, and no other market reaches that level, so we publish the analysis without a pick.
What is the best bet for Juventus vs Lazio?
The market favourite is Juventus to win at odds of 1.71, rated 58% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 49% for this match.
When does Juventus vs Lazio kick off?
Sun 18 Oct, 18:45 UTC.