Win probability
68%Inter
19%Draw
13%Fiorentina
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Under 2.5 goals33%
Both teams score (GG)79%
Double chance 1X87%
Key factors
- ▼Key player out · InterINT
Lautaro Martinez (left hamstring strain) is out until after the November international break. Applied at half weight because the absence has been public for over a week and the price already reflects it.
- ▲Barring surprises, Jones has recovered from an adductor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.INT
Barring surprises, Jones has recovered from an adductor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.
- ▲Barring surprises, Stones has recovered from a flexor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.INT
Barring surprises, Stones has recovered from a flexor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.
- ▼Pongracic outFIO
Pongracic listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
- ▼Ranieri outFIO
Ranieri listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
- ▼Jones outINT
Jones listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
- ▼Stones outINT
Stones listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
Preview
Top of the table meets the bottom three at San Siro. Inter have 19 points from seven games, the league's best attack with 21 goals, and have won all four home league games. Fiorentina sit 18th on four points and have conceded 17, the most in Serie A; after the 3-1 loss to Como, Vanoli said his side concede far too easily. Inter come in off a 3-1 win at Bologna and a 1-0 Champions League win over Shakhtar on Wednesday, won with ten men after Bastoni's red card; he has no league suspension and is in the expected line-up. Chivu is still without Lautaro Martinez, Pavard and Curtis Jones, Stones is not expected back until the derby, and Luis Henrique has a fresh adductor strain. Thuram and Pio Esposito are expected to lead the line. Fiorentina are without Atta and Parisi, and Ranieri is a major doubt with a foot problem. In the last five meetings Inter won three, Fiorentina one, with one draw. We trim Inter slightly for Lautaro's absence and still rate the home win at 68%.
Inter's depth and home form outweigh Lautaro's absence against the league's leakiest defence. Inter to win at 68%, priced at 1.41.
Head to head
- 2026-03-22Fiorentina 1–1 InterSerie A
- 2025-10-29Inter 3–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2025-02-10Inter 2–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2025-02-06Fiorentina 3–0 InterSerie A
- 2024-01-28Fiorentina 0–1 InterSerie A
FAQ
Is Lautaro Martinez playing for Inter against Fiorentina?
No. He has a left hamstring strain and is expected back only after the November international break.
Is Bastoni suspended after his red card against Shakhtar?
That red card came in the Champions League. He has no Serie A suspension and is in the expected Inter line-up.
What is our pick for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Inter to win, rated at 68% at odds of 1.41. No bet is certain, so stake responsibly.
What is the best bet for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our top pick is Inter to win at odds of 1.41, rated 68% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 67% for this match.
When does Inter vs Fiorentina kick off?
Sun 25 Oct, 11:30 UTC.