Win probability
60%Frosinone
24%Draw
16%Lecce
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Under 2.5 goals35%
Both teams score (GG)55%
Double chance 1X84%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · LecceLEC
Lecce forward Pierotti, who had played in all seven of his league games this season, has a fractured right ankle (medial malleolus), confirmed by the club.
- ▼Starter out · LecceLEC
Defender Gaspar started the 2-0 home defeat to Juventus and was sent off for dissent in stoppage time, so he is banned for the trip to Frosinone.
- ▼Starter out · LecceLEC
Midfielder Coulibaly has a grade-one tear of the right biceps femoris and is out until after the international break.
- ▲Coulibaly has done part of the sessions with the group and could start at once.LEC
Coulibaly has done part of the sessions with the group and could start at once.
- ▲Oyono resumes his place at right-back.FRO
Oyono resumes his place at right-back.
- ▲Coulibaly is recovering from his first-degree hamstring tear and could be back in the squad for Torino.LEC
Coulibaly is recovering from his first-degree hamstring tear and could be back in the squad for Torino.
- ▼Raimondo outFRO
Multi-ligament left ankle injury; out for at least five to six weeks.
- ▼Pierotti outLEC
Pierotti listed as unavailable for Serie A matchday 9 by TMW (28 Oct); no reason given.
Preview
Frosinone sit sixth on 14 points after eight rounds and come into this midweek game off a 4-4 draw in Bergamo, where Grillitsch was their only absentee. He is still out with an adductor problem, but Raimondo is fit again after his Achilles issue. Lecce arrive 12th on nine points after a 2-0 home defeat to Juventus, and their squad is thin. Pierotti has a fractured ankle, Coulibaly has a hamstring tear, Ilic is out long term and Gaspar is suspended after his late red card against Juventus. Tiago Gabriel is a doubt after a knock to the knee, and Berisha is not expected back until early November. Frosinone have scored 2.25 goals a game at home this season. Lecce have been tighter on the road, conceding one goal a game in four away matches. The old head-to-head favours Lecce, who are unbeaten in the last five meetings (three wins, two draws), but those games came between 2021 and 2024, partly in Serie B, with very different squads. The bookmakers already make Frosinone favourites. With three Lecce regulars missing, we rate the home win at 60%.
Frosinone are in form at home and Lecce are without three regular starters. We take the home win at 1.78, rated at 60%.
Head to head
- 2024-03-03Frosinone 1–1 LecceSerie A
- 2023-12-16Lecce 2–1 FrosinoneSerie A
- 2022-04-02Lecce 1–0 FrosinoneSerie B
- 2021-11-20Frosinone 0–0 LecceSerie B
- 2021-03-20Frosinone 0–3 LecceSerie B
FAQ
Who is missing for Lecce at Frosinone?
Pierotti (ankle fracture), Coulibaly (hamstring tear) and Ilic (thigh) are injured, and Gaspar is suspended. Tiago Gabriel is a doubt and Berisha is expected back in early November.
What is the recent head-to-head?
Lecce are unbeaten in the last five meetings, with three wins and two draws. Only two of the five games had more than two goals, and they were played between 2021 and 2024.
Why not over 2.5 goals?
The 1.46 price is too short for how we rate the line, so the value is on the Frosinone win at 1.78.
What is the best bet for Frosinone vs Lecce?
Our top pick is Frosinone to win at odds of 1.78, rated 60% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 65% for this match.
When does Frosinone vs Lecce kick off?
Thu 29 Oct, 17:30 UTC.