Win probability
44%Fiorentina
29%Draw
27%Atalanta
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Under 2.5 goals38%
Both teams score (GG)59%
Double chance 1X73%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · FiorentinaFIO
Centre-back Pongracic is out with a myofascial tear in his right hamstring (biceps femoris), picked up at Inter; Sky sees a possible return against Monza.
- ▼Fixture congestion · AtalantaATA
Atalanta play their third match in eight days: away at Ajax in the Conference League on Thursday 22 October, Frosinone at home on Sunday 25 October, then Florence on Thursday.
- ▼Starter out · AtalantaATA
Bellanova was hurt in the first half against Frosinone and misses Fiorentina with a low-grade strain of the left adductor.
- ▼Starter out · AtalantaATA
Kolasinac has a low-grade left rectus femoris strain and Sky expects him back only in early November, so he misses this game.
- ●Key defender out · AtalantaATA
Atalanta's defence is stripped: Kolasinac and Bellanova are newly out, Kossounou and Hien (listed out by Sky since 7 October, half weight) are still missing, and Sky's probable XI has Zappacosta and Bernasconi at full-back with academy defender Obric in the middle.
- ●Key defender out · FiorentinaFIO
Fiorentina lose centre-back Pongracic to injury and Ranieri is listed among the absentees, so Sky expects a Dragusin-Viery pairing.
- ▼Kessié doubtfulATA
Kessié is still being assessed; Sarri said he would need to rejoin the group by Saturday to be considered for Monza.
- ▲Scamacca is available again and is set to travel to Monza after his thigh complaint.ATA
Scamacca is available again and is set to travel to Monza after his thigh complaint.
Preview
Two leaky defences meet at the Franchi on Thursday night. Fiorentina are 18th with four points and have lost six of their eight league games. They have conceded 19 goals in eight matches, and Vanoli has said his side concede far too easily. Now centre-back Pongracic is out with a hamstring tear, Ranieri is a doubt with a foot problem, and Sky expects Viery to start next to Dragusin. Atalanta's back line is in worse shape. Kolasinac, Kossounou and Hien are all out, and Bellanova joined them after limping off in the 4-4 draw with Frosinone. Sky expects academy defender Obric to start again. Sarri's side have conceded 15 league goals in eight games, and this is their third match in eight days after the trip to Ajax. Scamacca also misses out, but Krstovic, who scored twice on Sunday, leads the line. Three of the last five meetings had both teams scoring, two of them 3-2 results. The forecast in Florence is dry with light wind. The 1X2 market is close and neither side reaches our threshold. Goals are the better angle: we rate over 2.5 at 62%.
Two short-handed, leaky defences meet in Florence. We take over 2.5 goals at 1.71, rated at 62%.
Head to head
- 2026-05-22Fiorentina 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 2025-11-30Atalanta 2–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2025-03-30Fiorentina 1–0 AtalantaSerie A
- 2024-09-15Atalanta 3–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2024-06-02Atalanta 2–3 FiorentinaSerie A
FAQ
Who is missing for Atalanta at Fiorentina?
Kolasinac, Kossounou, Hien, Bellanova, Raspadori and Scamacca are out. Kessie is a strong doubt and Scalvini is a doubt.
Who is missing for Fiorentina?
Pongracic, Atta and Parisi are out, and Ranieri is a doubt with a foot problem.
Why not pick a winner?
The market makes this close, and after our adjustments we have Fiorentina at 44% and Atalanta at 27%. Neither reaches our 55% threshold, so we back goals instead.
What is the best bet for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.71, rated 62% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 62% for this match.
When does Fiorentina vs Atalanta kick off?
Thu 29 Oct, 19:45 UTC.