Win probability
53%Bologna
26%Draw
20%Monza
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
Both teams score (GG)66%
Double chance 1X79%
Key factors
- ▲Form & head-to-head · BolognaBOL
Bologna won 4-2 at San Siro on Wednesday with a Mbangula hat-trick, ending Milan's unbeaten league run, after a 2-0 win at Cagliari.
- ▼Fixture congestion · BolognaBOL
Bologna played at Cagliari on Saturday 24 October and at Milan on Wednesday; Palladino noted the few days to prepare. Monza is their third game in eight days.
- ▼Key player out · BolognaBOL
Captain Orsolini has a first-degree hamstring lesion with about three weeks out from 13 October. Half weight: known for more than 14 days and Bologna have won without him.
- ▼Starter out · MonzaMON
Centre-back Ziolkowski was listed among Monza's absentees for the Napoli game with Pessina and Maye; no update for Saturday, so half weight as a doubt.
- ▼Piccoli doubtfulBOL
Sky's preview has Piccoli back in group work since midweek after a biceps femoris lesion, though its injury list still calls him a strong doubt for Parma.
- ▼Folorunsho outMON
Sky now list Folorunsho as unavailable for Atalanta with his calf problem.
- ▲Darmian is ready to come back into the side for the Parma game.BOL
Darmian is ready to come back into the side for the Parma game.
- ▲Carboni is aiming to return from the start against Atalanta.MON
Carboni is aiming to return from the start against Atalanta.
Preview
Bologna arrive in form. They won 2-0 at Cagliari and then 4-2 at Milan on Wednesday, with Samuel Mbangula scoring a hat-trick and ending Milan's unbeaten league run. Home form is the worry: Bologna score only 1.0 goal a game at the Dall'Ara and concede 1.75. They are 11th on 11 points, still without captain Orsolini (hamstring) and with Piccoli and Enem also listed out, and this is their third game in eight days. Monza are 16th on 7 points. They lost 3-2 at Torino and 1-4 at home to Napoli on Wednesday, and they concede 2.8 goals a game away from home. Pessina, Ziolkowski and Maye were missing again in midweek. Bologna are unbeaten in the last five meetings, with three wins and two draws. The market rates the home win at 55%; the busy week and Orsolini's absence balance out Bologna's momentum, and we land at 53%. Over 2.5 goals sits near a coin flip at 52%. Nothing reaches our 55% threshold, so we hold back a pick.
Bologna's form is strong, but a third game in eight days and a weak home record keep the home win just under our bar at 53%. No pick on this one.
Head to head
- 2025-01-18Bologna 3–1 MonzaSerie A
- 2024-12-03Bologna 4–0 MonzaCoppa Italia
- 2024-09-22Monza 1–2 BolognaSerie A
- 2024-04-13Bologna 0–0 MonzaSerie A
- 2023-09-28Monza 0–0 BolognaSerie A
FAQ
Who scored Bologna's goals at Milan?
Samuel Mbangula scored a hat-trick and Milan's Bartesaghi added an own goal in Bologna's 4-2 win.
Why is there no SureTips pick for Bologna vs Monza?
No market reaches our 55% threshold after adjustments. We rate the home win at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
What is the best bet for Bologna vs Monza?
The market favourite is Bologna to win at odds of 1.74, rated 56% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 52% for this match.
When does Bologna vs Monza kick off?
Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 UTC.