Win probability
60%Atalanta
23%Draw
17%Parma
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Under 2.5 goals40%
Both teams score (GG)54%
Double chance 1X83%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · AtalantaATA
Defender Thomas Kristensen went off early at Fiorentina with a left thigh flexor problem and is out until after the international break.
- ▼Starter out · AtalantaATA
Midfielder Gianluca Gaetano strained his right thigh adductors at Fiorentina and misses Parma, returning after the international break.
- ●Key defender out · AtalantaATA
With Kristensen joining Hien, Kossounou and Kolasinac on the injury list, Sky's expected line-up has only Scalvini and Obric fit to start at centre-back.
- ▼Bernabe outPAR
Bernabe misses Bologna with a left rectus femoris problem and is expected back at the end of November.
- ▼Kolasinac doubtfulATA
Kolasinac faces the same Saturday deadline as Kessié to rejoin the group before the Monza game.
- ▼Kessié doubtfulATA
Kessié is still being assessed; Sarri said he would need to rejoin the group by Saturday to be considered for Monza.
- ▲Scamacca is available again and is set to travel to Monza after his thigh complaint.ATA
Scamacca is available again and is set to travel to Monza after his thigh complaint.
- ▼Drobnic outPAR
Drobnic is out against Bologna with plantar fasciitis.
Preview
Atalanta's injury list keeps growing. Thomas Kristensen and Gianluca Gaetano were both hurt in Thursday's 2-2 draw at Fiorentina and will be out until after the international break. Sky lists ten unavailable players in all, among them Scamacca, Kessié, Raspadori, Bellanova and centre-backs Hien, Kossounou and Kolasinac. Sarri's expected back line pairs Giorgio Scalvini, just back from injury, with academy defender Relja Obric. His side still score: Atalanta have conceded and scored freely in recent weeks, including a 4-4 draw with Frosinone. Parma come in 19th on five points after a 0-0 draw with Udinese, in which Bernabé missed a penalty. Elphege is their only listed absentee. Four of the last five meetings, a friendly included, produced three goals or more, and Atalanta won 4-0 in Bergamo in January. The market makes Atalanta 63% favourites; with two more starters out we trim that to 60%, below our value threshold at 1.57. A makeshift defence pushes us the other way on goals: we rate over 2.5 at 60%.
Atalanta are short at the back, with two fit centre-backs, and their games have been open. We take over 2.5 goals at 1.73, rated at 60%.
Head to head
- 2026-01-25Atalanta 4–0 ParmaSerie A
- 2025-08-30Parma 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 2025-05-25Atalanta 2–3 ParmaSerie A
- 2024-11-23Parma 1–3 AtalantaSerie A
- 2024-08-04Parma 4–1 AtalantaFriendlies Clubs
FAQ
Who is missing for Atalanta against Parma?
Kristensen, Gaetano, Scamacca, Kessié, Raspadori, Bellanova, Kolasinac, Kossounou, Hien and third-choice keeper Pompei are all listed as unavailable.
Who is missing for Parma?
Only Nesta Elphege, who had appendicitis surgery, is on Parma's unavailable list.
Why not back an Atalanta win?
We rate the home win at 60%, but at 1.57 that is below fair value after the latest injuries. Over 2.5 goals offers a better price for a similar chance.
What is the best bet for Atalanta vs Parma?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, rated 60% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 60% for this match.
When does Atalanta vs Parma kick off?
Mon 02 Nov, 19:45 UTC.