Win probability
65%AS Roma
21%Draw
14%Sassuolo
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals69%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Under 2.5 goals31%
Both teams score (GG)61%
Double chance 1X86%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · AS RomaROM
Roma play their third match in seven days after Udinese and a Tuesday trip to Manchester United.
- ▼Backup goalkeeper · AS RomaROM
Svilar is out until after the break with a fifth-toe micro-fracture and Gollini is doubtful with a back problem, so a backup starts in goal.
- ▼Key player out · AS RomaROM
Dybala misses Sassuolo with a minimal calf lesion, contrary to earlier hopes he would be available.
- ●Key attacker out · AS RomaROM
Dybala is out with a calf lesion, removing one of Roma's main attacking threats.
- ▼Dybala outROM
Dybala trained apart again and is heading for a seventh straight absence with a minimal calf lesion.
- ▲Thorstvedt is back after a one-match ban and will start.SAS
Thorstvedt is back after a one-match ban and will start.
- ▼Berardi doubtfulSAS
Berardi is unwell and at strong risk of missing Roma.
- ▼Gollini doubtfulROM
Gollini has a back problem; Gasperini could not say if he will play and it may be decided just before kickoff, with Vasquez in the predicted XI.
Preview
Sassuolo arrive in crisis. They have lost four in a row, most recently 4-2 to Fiorentina, and have the worst defence in Serie A with 26 conceded. ANSA says Aquilani's position is starting to wobble. Roma score 2.8 a game both home and away, though they are hurting. They lost 3-2 at Manchester United on Tuesday after leading 2-0, and this is their third game in seven days. The list of absentees is long. Svilar is out until after the break, Gollini is doubtful, and Vasquez made his debut in Manchester. Dybala, Koné, Pellegrini and Rensch are all out too. Our numbers cut the home win to 65%, which at 1.35 is too short to back. Goals are the better angle. A backup keeper and a porous Sassuolo defence push one way, Dybala's absence the other, and they cancel out at 69.1%. The recent head-to-head is low-scoring, with only two of five over 2.5, but this defence is far weaker than those numbers suggest.
Sassuolo's defence is the worst in the league and Roma start a backup keeper. We rate over 2.5 goals at 69.1%.
Head to head
- 2026-01-10AS Roma 2–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 2025-10-26Sassuolo 0–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 2024-03-17AS Roma 1–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 2023-12-03Sassuolo 1–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 2023-03-12AS Roma 3–4 SassuoloSerie A
FAQ
Why not back Roma to win?
With the absences and fixture load we rate them at 65%, too low for a price of 1.35.
Who is in goal for Roma?
Svilar is out and Gollini is doubtful. Vasquez played in Manchester.
What is the best bet for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.38, rated 69% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 69% for this match.
When does AS Roma vs Sassuolo kick off?
Sat 07 Nov, 19:45 UTC.