Win probability
63%AS Roma
23%Draw
14%Genoa
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Under 2.5 goals43%
Both teams score (GG)47%
Double chance 1X86%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · AS RomaROM
Malen is suspended after his red card at Como; Castro is expected to lead the line in his place.
- ▼Starter out · AS RomaROM
Koné, ever-present this season, went off early against Real Madrid with a muscle problem; extent still to be assessed. Doubtful, so half weight.
- ▼Backup goalkeeper · AS RomaROM
First-choice keeper Svilar has a stress fracture of the fifth toe and is out for at least a month; Gollini starts in goal.
- ▼Fixture congestion · AS RomaROM
Gasperini said Roma face nine matches in 27 days and promised heavy rotation; Genoa is Roma's third game in seven days.
- ●Key attacker out · AS RomaROM
Roma's starting striker Malen is suspended; Castro replaces him. Half weight as his key status is not sourced.
- ▼Gollini doubtfulROM
Gollini has a back problem; Gasperini could not say if he will play and it may be decided just before kickoff, with Vasquez in the predicted XI.
- ▼Dybala outROM
Dybala trained apart again and is heading for a seventh straight absence with a minimal calf lesion.
- ▼Rensch outROM
Rensch has a first-degree right adductor lesion, about 20 days out; he misses Sassuolo and targets Parma on 21 November.
Preview
Roma are third and unbeaten after six games (four wins, two draws), while Genoa sit 17th on four points. Genoa did get their first win last time out, 2-1 against Fiorentina. Roma arrive stretched. This is their third game in seven days, after a 0-0 at Como and a Champions League home defeat to Real Madrid. Donyell Malen is suspended after his red card at Como, so Santiago Castro should lead the line. Manu Koné went off early against Real with a muscle problem and is a strong doubt. Paulo Dybala is also a doubt after a muscle strain. In goal, Gollini deputises for the injured Mile Svilar. Genoa are missing striker Lorenzo Colombo (ankle). Those absences trim our Roma win rating to 63%, which is too short at the price. Goals are the better angle. A backup keeper behind a tired defence gives Genoa more of a chance to score. Three of the last five meetings had three or more goals, with 14 goals in those five games. We rate over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Roma are weakened and tired but still favourites. A backup keeper and a heavy schedule point to an open game; we take over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Head to head
- 2026-03-08Genoa 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 2025-12-29AS Roma 3–1 GenoaSerie A
- 2025-01-17AS Roma 3–1 GenoaSerie A
- 2024-09-15Genoa 1–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 2024-05-19AS Roma 1–0 GenoaSerie A
FAQ
Who is missing for Roma against Genoa?
Malen is suspended and Svilar is injured, with Gollini in goal. Koné and Dybala are doubts after muscle problems against Real Madrid.
Why not back a Roma win?
We rate it at 63% after the absences and the fixture pile-up. At odds of 1.41 that has no value.
What is the head-to-head record?
Roma won three of the last five meetings, drew one and lost one. There were 14 goals in those five games.
What is the best bet for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75, rated 57% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 57% for this match.
When does AS Roma vs Genoa kick off?
Sat 17 Oct, 18:45 UTC.