Win probability
67%AS Roma
21%Draw
12%Cagliari
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals57%
Under 2.5 goals43%
Both teams score (GG)49%
Double chance 1X88%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · AS RomaROM
Roma play their third match in eight days: Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League on 20 October, Napoli away on 24 October, then Cagliari on 27 October. Gasperini said he is rotating many players between games.
- ▼Backup goalkeeper · AS RomaROM
First-choice keeper Svilar is still out with a micro-fracture of the fifth toe, with a return in the second half of November, so the backup starts. Sky first reported the fracture on 10 October (sport.sky.it/calcio/serie-a/2026/10/10/svilar-infortunio-roma-news), more than 14 days ago, so it counts at half weight.
- ▼Dybala outROM
Dybala trained apart again and is heading for a seventh straight absence with a minimal calf lesion.
- ▼Fadera outCAG
Fadera is out until at least the end of November with a biceps femoris lesion.
- ▼Nzola outCAG
Nzola has a flexor strain and is out until at least the end of November.
- ▼Obert suspendedCAG
Obert serves a one-match ban and misses Frosinone.
- ▼Gollini doubtfulROM
Gollini has a back problem; Gasperini could not say if he will play and it may be decided just before kickoff, with Vasquez in the predicted XI.
- ▼Rensch outROM
Rensch has a first-degree right adductor lesion, about 20 days out; he misses Sassuolo and targets Parma on 21 November.
Preview
Roma return to the Olimpico three days after a wild 3-3 at Napoli, where Gasperini's side came back twice and Balerdi equalised in the 89th minute. This is their third game in eight days after Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League, and Gasperini has said he rotates many players between games. Mile Svilar is still out with a toe micro-fracture, so the backup keeper stays in goal. Lorenzo Pellegrini has a high-grade thigh muscle injury and Manu Koné is aiming for 7 November, but scans cleared Paulo Dybala's calf and Sky expect him back in the squad. Roma score 2.5 goals a game at home. Cagliari have lost their last two, 4-0 at Monza and 2-0 at home to Bologna, where Harry Winks went off at half-time with back pain. In the last five meetings Roma won three, all at the Olimpico (4-0, 1-0 and 2-0), drew 0-0 in Cagliari and lost 1-0 there last December; four of the five stayed under 2.5 goals. The home win at 1.40 is too short once we trim it for fatigue and the backup keeper, so over 2.5 goals at 57.1% is our pick.
Roma's home attack against a Cagliari side that has shipped six in two games points to goals. Over 2.5 goals is our pick at 57.1%.
Head to head
- 2026-02-09AS Roma 2–0 CagliariSerie A
- 2025-12-07Cagliari 1–0 AS RomaSerie A
- 2025-03-16AS Roma 1–0 CagliariSerie A
- 2024-08-18Cagliari 0–0 AS RomaSerie A
- 2024-02-05AS Roma 4–0 CagliariSerie A
FAQ
Who is missing for Roma against Cagliari?
Mile Svilar (toe micro-fracture), Lorenzo Pellegrini (thigh muscle injury) and Manu Koné (muscle injury) are out. Paulo Dybala is expected back in the squad.
Who is missing for Cagliari?
Felici and Idrissi are out with cruciate ligament injuries, and Harry Winks is being assessed after back pain against Bologna.
How have recent Roma vs Cagliari games gone?
Roma won three of the last five meetings, all at home, drew one and lost 1-0 in Cagliari last December. Four of the five had under 2.5 goals.
What is the best bet for AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, rated 57% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 57% for this match.
When does AS Roma vs Cagliari kick off?
Tue 27 Oct, 19:45 UTC.