Win probability
27%AC Milan
26%Draw
48%Inter
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals55%
Under 2.5 goals45%
Both teams score (GG)64%
Double chance X274%
Key factors
- ●Cagey contest · Both teamsBoth
Milan derby (house rule 5): no points added to the favourite, cagey goals factor applied instead.
- ●Key attacker out · InterINT
Inter captain Lautaro Martinez was still unavailable at Venezia; his absence has been known since mid-October, so half weight (house rule 1).
- ●Key defender out · AC MilanMIL
Centre-back Tomori came off at half-time against Bologna with a right-thigh problem and is unconfirmed for the derby; doubtful, so half weight (house rule 11).
- ▲Barring surprises, Jones has recovered from an adductor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.INT
Barring surprises, Jones has recovered from an adductor complaint and will be on the bench against Como.
- ▼Chukwueze outMIL
Chukwueze had left hip surgery in London and is not expected to be available before February.
- ▼Pavlovic doubtfulMIL
Pavlovic was still training apart on Friday; a decision on his call-up for Genoa comes on Saturday.
- ▼Sky expect Maignan, Gila, Modric, Moreira and Pulisic to return to the starting XI against Genoa.MIL
Sky expect Maignan, Gila, Modric, Moreira and Pulisic to return to the starting XI against Genoa.
- ▼Tomori outMIL
Tomori has a right thigh lesion and is due back at the end of November.
Preview
The derby arrives at a bad moment for Milan. Amorim's side lost 4-2 at home to Bologna on Wednesday, their first league defeat of the season, and Tomori went off at half-time with a thigh problem. He joins a long absence list that includes Rabiot, Gila, Moreira, Gabbia, Saelemaekers, Chukwueze and Loftus-Cheek. Amorim said one or two might recover in time. Inter won 2-0 at Venezia thanks to two late own goals, a result Chivu himself called lucky, and they sit joint top on 25 points from nine games, unbeaten. They are still without captain Lautaro Martinez, so Thuram and Bonny lead the line. History leans the other way: Inter have not beaten Milan in the last five meetings in our data (Milan three wins, two draws), and four of those five finished under 2.5 goals. The market makes Inter favourites at 48%. Because this is a derby, we do not add to the favourite and we trim the goals line to 55% for over 2.5.
Inter are the stronger side on form, Milan the stronger side in recent derbies, and both are missing key men. No price offers enough value, so we publish no pick.
Head to head
- 2026-08-05AC Milan 1–1 InterFriendlies Clubs
- 2026-03-08AC Milan 1–0 InterSerie A
- 2025-11-23Inter 0–1 AC MilanSerie A
- 2025-04-23Inter 0–3 AC MilanCoppa Italia
- 2025-04-02AC Milan 1–1 InterCoppa Italia
FAQ
Who is missing for Milan?
Rabiot, Gila, Moreira, Gabbia, Saelemaekers, Chukwueze and Loftus-Cheek were all out against Bologna, and Tomori is a doubt after leaving that game at half-time.
Is Lautaro Martinez playing?
He was still unavailable for Inter's win at Venezia on Wednesday, so we treat him as out.
How have recent derbies gone?
In the last five meetings Milan won three and two were drawn; four of the five had fewer than three goals.
What is the best bet for AC Milan vs Inter?
The market favourite is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.70, rated 58% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 55% for this match.
When does AC Milan vs Inter kick off?
Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 UTC.