Win probability
59%AC Milan
27%Draw
14%Bologna
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals52%
Under 2.5 goals48%
Both teams score (GG)43%
Double chance 1X86%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · AC MilanMIL
Milan host Bologna on Wednesday after the Europa League defeat at Bournemouth and Sunday's trip to Udinese, with the Inter derby on Saturday: a third game in a week.
- ▼Starter out · AC MilanMIL
Rabiot, one of three regular starters who missed Udinese (right calf), has no set recovery time, so he is a doubt for Bologna. Half weight as a doubt.
- ▼Key player out · BolognaBOL
Captain Orsolini has a first-degree right hamstring lesion with about three weeks out from 13 October, which covers this game. Trimmed below the full cap because he already missed the win at Cagliari.
- ▼Starter out · BolognaBOL
Centre-forward Piccoli has a right hamstring lesion needing at least three weeks, per the club; Dovbyk or Enem were expected to lead the line at Cagliari and Milan instead.
- ▲Darmian is ready to come back into the side for the Parma game.BOL
Darmian is ready to come back into the side for the Parma game.
- ▲Orsolini came back from injury last week and is available for Parma.BOL
Orsolini came back from injury last week and is available for Parma.
- ▼Piccoli doubtfulBOL
Sky's preview has Piccoli back in group work since midweek after a biceps femoris lesion, though its injury list still calls him a strong doubt for Parma.
- ▼Tomori outMIL
Tomori has a right thigh lesion and is due back at the end of November.
Preview
Milan are fourth and still unbeaten in Serie A after eight games (five wins, three draws). At San Siro they score 2.67 goals a game and concede 0.67. Bologna sit 13th on 8 points, although they won 2-0 at Cagliari on Saturday under Palladino. The visitors are short up front: captain Orsolini has a hamstring lesion with about three weeks out from 13 October, and centre-forward Piccoli has a hamstring lesion needing at least three weeks. Both trained apart on Sunday. Milan have problems too. This is their third game in a week after the Europa League loss at Bournemouth and Sunday's 2-0 win at Udinese, and the Inter derby follows on Saturday. Rabiot (calf) has no set return date, while Gabbia, Saelemaekers and Chukwueze are out. Milan won three of the last five meetings, Bologna two. The market makes Milan clear favourites, and Bologna's missing attackers keep us there. We rate the home win at 59%.
Milan at home against a Bologna side without their captain and first-choice striker. We rate the home win at 59%, in line with a 1.69 price; the busy week before the derby is the main risk.
Head to head
- 2026-02-03Bologna 0–3 AC MilanSerie A
- 2025-09-14AC Milan 1–0 BolognaSerie A
- 2025-05-14AC Milan 0–1 BolognaCoppa Italia
- 2025-05-09AC Milan 3–1 BolognaSerie A
- 2025-02-27Bologna 2–1 AC MilanSerie A
FAQ
Who is missing for Bologna at San Siro?
Captain Riccardo Orsolini and striker Roberto Piccoli both have hamstring injuries, and Emil Holm is out long term after hamstring tendon surgery.
Will Milan rotate before the derby?
Possibly. This is their third game in a week and the Inter derby follows on Saturday, so we trimmed their win chance a little for fatigue.
What is the SureTips pick for Milan vs Bologna?
Milan to win at 1.69. We rate it at 59%. No bet is ever sure, so stake responsibly.
What is the best bet for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our top pick is AC Milan to win at odds of 1.69, rated 59% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 52% for this match.
When does AC Milan vs Bologna kick off?
Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 UTC.