Win probability
52%AC Milan
27%Draw
21%Atalanta
Serie A · Italy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals55%
Under 2.5 goals45%
Both teams score (GG)30%
Double chance 1X79%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · AtalantaATA
Eljif Elmas is banned for one match after his red card against Venezia and misses the trip to Milan.
- ▼Starter out · AtalantaATA
Giacomo Raspadori went off early against Pafos with a muscle problem and is a doubt for Milan; counted at half weight.
- ▼Fixture congestion · AC MilanMIL
Milan played away at Salzburg in the Europa League on Thursday night and return for a Sunday game (house rule 2).
- ▼Sky expect Maignan, Gila, Modric, Moreira and Pulisic to return to the starting XI against Genoa.MIL
Sky expect Maignan, Gila, Modric, Moreira and Pulisic to return to the starting XI against Genoa.
- ▼Pavlovic doubtfulMIL
Pavlovic was still training apart on Friday; a decision on his call-up for Genoa comes on Saturday.
- ▼Tomori outMIL
Tomori has a right thigh lesion and is due back at the end of November.
- ▼Chukwueze outMIL
Chukwueze had left hip surgery in London and is not expected to be available before February.
- ▼Kolasinac doubtfulATA
Kolasinac faces the same Saturday deadline as Kessié to rejoin the group before the Monza game.
Preview
Milan are unbeaten in Serie A this season, with three wins and three draws, and have yet to concede a league goal at San Siro. They also arrive in form after a 4-0 Europa League win at Salzburg on Thursday, where Cisse scored a hat-trick. That trip is the catch: Milan are back in action on Sunday after a Thursday away night in Austria, and Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers remain long-term absentees. Atalanta beat Pafos 3-1 at home on Thursday for a second straight win, but Sarri's squad is thin. Eljif Elmas is suspended, Giorgio Scalvini will probably miss out with a minor hamstring strain, and Isak Hien and Odilon Kossounou are both out until around November. Giacomo Raspadori limped off against Pafos and is a doubt. History favours the visitors: Atalanta are unbeaten in the last five meetings, with three wins and two draws. On our numbers Milan win 52% of the time and over 2.5 goals sits near 55%, so neither clears our bar with enough margin.
Milan are the right favourites, but a Thursday trip and Atalanta's good record in this fixture keep the home win near 52%. No main pick here.
Head to head
- 2026-05-10AC Milan 2–3 AtalantaSerie A
- 2025-10-28Atalanta 1–1 AC MilanSerie A
- 2025-04-20AC Milan 0–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 2024-12-06Atalanta 2–1 AC MilanSerie A
- 2024-02-25AC Milan 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
FAQ
Who is missing for Atalanta against Milan?
Elmas is suspended; Scalvini, Hien and Kossounou are expected out, and Raspadori is a doubt.
What is the recent head-to-head between Milan and Atalanta?
Atalanta are unbeaten in the last five meetings: three wins and two draws.
Is there a SureTips pick for Milan vs Atalanta?
No main pick. Our numbers rate the Milan win at 52%, below our 55% threshold.
What is the best bet for AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The market favourite is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75, rated 56% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 55% for this match.
When does AC Milan vs Atalanta kick off?
Sun 18 Oct, 16:00 UTC.