Win probability
64%Villarreal
20%Draw
16%Elche
La Liga · Spain
Markets
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Under 2.5 goals35%
Both teams score (GG)72%
Double chance 1X84%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · VillarrealVIL
Villarreal play for the third time in eight days (Real Madrid away, then Napoli on Tuesday) and Iñigo Pérez is expected to rotate again before the Anfield trip.
- ▼Íñigo Pérez is under real pressure after the record 6-0 home defeat by PSG followed a loss to Espanyol, with Marca reporting the club weighing his future before Getafe.VIL
Íñigo Pérez is under real pressure after the record 6-0 home defeat by PSG followed a loss to Espanyol, with Marca reporting the club weighing his future before Getafe.
- ▼Fer Nino doubtfulELC
Striker Fer Nino has lower-back discomfort after the Vallecas game and is a doubt, with Abiel Osorio the alternative.
- ▼Nathan Saliba doubtfulVIL
Nathan Saliba is close to returning but was a doubt for the Espanyol game; later previews list him among the absentees.
- ▼Ilias Akhomach outVIL
Ilias Akhomach is ruled out of Friday's home game against Espanyol with a muscle problem, alongside the suspended Pape Gueye.
- ▼Carlos Romero doubtfulVIL
Left-back Carlos Romero is nearing a return to match action but is a doubt for the visit of Espanyol.
- ▲Back from his one-match ban, Fede Redondo scored in the 3-0 win at Rayo Vallecano, Elche's fourth league game unbeaten and third straight clean sheet.ELC
Back from his one-match ban, Fede Redondo scored in the 3-0 win at Rayo Vallecano, Elche's fourth league game unbeaten and third straight clean sheet.
Preview
Villarreal come into this one in better spirits. After a 1-0 defeat at the Bernabéu last Saturday, they beat Napoli 3-1 in the Champions League on Tuesday, coming from behind with goals from Mikautadze, Mouriño and substitute Oluwaseyi. This is their third game in eight days, with Liverpool away next Tuesday, so Iñigo Pérez is expected to rotate. Freeman, Foyth, Cardona, Akhomach and Ayoze Pérez are candidates to start. Tajon Buchanan is out with a hamstring injury and Nicolas Pépé is out after an eye operation. Goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi missed Tuesday for personal reasons and his status will be assessed. Elche are 18th with six points and one league win. They drew 0-0 with Celta on Sunday, a rare clean sheet. Federico Redondo is back from suspension, while Yago Santiago is still working his way back from a knee injury. Villarreal won four of the last five meetings, and four of those five games had three or more goals. We rate a home win at 64%.
Even with rotation, Villarreal have the deeper squad and a strong record against Elche. Our surest pick is a Villarreal win at 1.51, rated at 64%.
Head to head
- 2026-03-08Villarreal 2–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 2026-01-03Elche 1–3 VillarrealLa Liga
- 2023-02-04Elche 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 2022-09-04Villarreal 4–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 2022-01-16Elche 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
FAQ
Who is missing for Villarreal vs Elche?
Villarreal are without Buchanan and Pépé, and Gulácsi's status is being assessed. Elche have Redondo back, while Yago Santiago is not expected to start.
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Elche?
Villarreal are clear favourites at home. We rate a Villarreal win at 64%, the draw at 20% and an Elche win at 16%.
What is the best bet for Villarreal vs Elche?
Our main pick is a Villarreal win at odds of 1.51, which we rate at 64%. No bet is ever sure, so stake responsibly.
What is the best bet for Villarreal vs Elche?
Our top pick is Villarreal to win at odds of 1.51, rated 64% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 65% for this match.
When does Villarreal vs Elche kick off?
Sat 17 Oct, 14:15 UTC.