Valencia

Win probability

Markets

Key factors

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  Fixture congestion · Real Madrid

  Madrid won in Athens on Wednesday, their third match in seven days, and Valencia comes after that trip. Mourinho tied his rotation plans to this run.

  REA
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  Key player out · Real Madrid

  Half weight: Vinícius's four-game La Liga ban, reported on 14 October, lists Valencia as the last match he misses.

  REA
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  Form & head-to-head · Valencia

  Valencia have no home win this season and score just 0.5 a game at Mestalla.

  VAL
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  Key attacker out · Real Madrid

  Half weight for Vinícius, who is serving a La Liga ban known since 14 October.

  REA
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  Ferland Mendy out

  Mendy is out with a hip injury.

  REA
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  AS expects Sadiq back in the XI for the first time in two months beside Danjuma, as Aguirre tested a five-man defence of Maffeo, Arnau, Pepelu, Tárrega and Gayà for Real Madrid.

  AS expects Sadiq back in the XI for the first time in two months beside Danjuma, as Aguirre tested a five-man defence of Maffeo, Arnau, Pepelu, Tárrega and Gayà for Real Madrid.

  VAL
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  Tchouaméni doubtful

  Tchouaméni, also absent from the Athens trip, trained alone on Thursday two days before Mestalla, while Güler was back in normal group work.

  REA
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  Courtois is back in the squad after flu kept him out of the Clasico. Eder Militao, who returned against Sevilla, could also start. Asencio, Rodrygo and Mendy remain out.

  Courtois is back in the squad after flu kept him out of the Clasico. Eder Militao, who returned against Sevilla, could also start. Asencio, Rodrygo and Mendy remain out.

  REA

Preview

Mestalla has given Valencia no comfort this season. They have no home win, score 0.5 a game there and sit 19th on nine points. They did win 1-0 at Elche last week, with Sadiq scoring on his return after two months out, and that was the first league win under Aguirre. His minutes are still a question, and Otorbi, Diego López and Canós remain out of group training. Real Madrid have won nine of 11 and score 3.4 a game at home and 1.83 away. They needed a stoppage-time Valverde goal to win 3-2 in Athens on Wednesday, so this is their third game in seven days. Vinícius serves the last match of his four-game league ban, and Rodrygo and Asencio are out, but Madrid have kept winning. Valverde is back after his Clásico scare. Madrid won the last two meetings by 2-0 and 4-0, and they have won three of the last five. We rate the away win at about 71%.

Head to head

• 2026-02-08Valencia 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
• 2025-11-01Real Madrid 4–0 ValenciaLa Liga
• 2025-04-05Real Madrid 1–2 ValenciaLa Liga
• 2025-01-03Valencia 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
• 2024-03-02Valencia 2–2 Real MadridLa Liga