Win probability
32%Valencia
29%Draw
38%Athletic Club
La Liga · Spain
Markets
Over 2.5 goals44%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Both teams score (GG)43%
Double chance X267%
Key factors
- ▼Key player out · Athletic ClubBIL
Sancet has a muscle injury from training and will most likely miss Mestalla. Not confirmed out, so half weight.
- ▲New manager · ValenciaVAL
Javier Aguirre is Valencia's new head coach. Racing was his first match, so this is his second game in charge and his first at Mestalla.
- ●Key attacker out · Athletic ClubBIL
Terzic called Sancet very important and said his muscle injury will take longer to heal than Nico Williams'. Likely out but not confirmed, so half weight.
- ●Key attacker out · Athletic ClubBIL
Nico Williams is still outside the group with a muscle injury three days before the trip. Doubtful, so half weight.
- ▼AS expects Sadiq back in the XI for the first time in two months beside Danjuma, as Aguirre tested a five-man defence of Maffeo, Arnau, Pepelu, Tárrega and Gayà for Real Madrid.VAL
AS expects Sadiq back in the XI for the first time in two months beside Danjuma, as Aguirre tested a five-man defence of Maffeo, Arnau, Pepelu, Tárrega and Gayà for Real Madrid.
- ▼Maroan outBIL
Maroan has a moderate-to-severe left hamstring injury from the derby; the expected six to eight weeks could end his 2026, leaving Iñaki Williams the only natural forward.
- ▲Coach Edin Terzic said Djalo is available to train and play again after a medical problem following international duty, with a gradual return to match rhythm.BIL
Coach Edin Terzic said Djalo is available to train and play again after a medical problem following international duty, with a gradual return to match rhythm.
- ▼Kayne Van Oevelen outVAL
Kayne Van Oevelen sprained a right knee ligament in Friday training and is out. David Otorbi (thigh), Diego Lopez and Sergi Canos also miss Elche, and Jose Copete was left out.
Preview
Valencia are 19th with five points from eight games and only one win. They have scored just 0.5 goals per home game. Javier Aguirre took charge last week and drew 2-2 at Racing in his debut. Saturday is his first game at Mestalla. Hugo Duro and Pablo Maffeo picked up knocks at Racing but have trained and should be available. Luis Rioja, Dimitri Foulquier and José Copete are back in training. Diego López is still out long term. Athletic are tenth on eight points, with two games in hand. Their trip to Rayo was suspended, so they come in rested. Their attack is the problem. Oihan Sancet will most likely miss out with a muscle injury. Nico Williams is still training apart from the group. Aymeric Laporte missed the Rayo squad through illness. Recent meetings have been tight. Four of the last five finished under 2.5 goals, with eight goals across the five games. Without Sancet and probably Nico, we rate under 2.5 goals at 56%.
A struggling home attack meets an Athletic side likely missing two key forwards. We back under 2.5 goals at 56%, which is value at 1.86.
Head to head
- 2026-05-10Athletic Club 0–1 ValenciaLa Liga
- 2026-02-04Valencia 1–2 Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
- 2025-09-20Valencia 2–0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 2025-05-18Valencia 0–1 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 2024-08-28Athletic Club 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
FAQ
Will Nico Williams play at Mestalla?
He is a doubt. He was still training apart from the group on Wednesday after a muscle injury on Spain duty.
How have recent Valencia v Athletic games gone?
Four of the last five meetings had fewer than three goals, and none of the five was a draw.
Who is Valencia's coach now?
Javier Aguirre. He drew 2-2 at Racing in his first game, and this is his first home match.
What is the best bet for Valencia vs Athletic Club?
Our top pick is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.86, rated 56% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 44% for this match.
When does Valencia vs Athletic Club kick off?
Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 UTC.