Win probability
30%Malaga
28%Draw
41%Real Sociedad
La Liga · Spain
Markets
Over 2.5 goals54%
Under 2.5 goals47%
Both teams score (GG)58%
Double chance X269%
Key factors
- ▼Fixture congestion · Real SociedadRSO
Real Sociedad played away to Union Saint-Gilloise in Leuven on Thursday night and travel to Malaga for a Sunday game (house rule 2).
- ▲Joaquín Muñoz and Pablo Martínez are both integrated in group training before Racing, while Juan Cruz, Ochoa and Lobete stay outside it and Puga is on load management.MAL
Joaquín Muñoz and Pablo Martínez are both integrated in group training before Racing, while Juan Cruz, Ochoa and Lobete stay outside it and Puga is on load management.
- ▼Mikel Oyarzabal doubtfulRSO
Oyarzabal ended the Lyon game with back pain after a heavy knock, and Matarazzo could not say if Carlos Soler, out with a stomach bug, will recover for Rayo.
- ▼Mamadou Sarr doubtfulRSO
Centre-back Sarr went off at half-time against Lyon with soleus discomfort and is a concern for Sunday's game with Rayo.
- ▼Player outMAL
Bottom side Málaga (five points, no league win) are without injured midfielder Pablo Martínez and forwards Joaquín Muñoz and Juan Cruz.
- ▼Matarazzo said his side will need a complete, top-level performance to win at San Mamés and welcomed having several players pushing to fill Zakharyan's spot.RSO
Matarazzo said his side will need a complete, top-level performance to win at San Mamés and welcomed having several players pushing to fill Zakharyan's spot.
- ▼Arsen Zakharyan outRSO
Matarazzo ruled Zakharyan out of Sunday's derby at San Mamés after he turned his ankle in training this week; the club hopes to have him back for the European game against Lyon.
Preview
Malaga are bottom of La Liga and still looking for a first league win after eight games, with four draws and four defeats. Goals have been the problem: they average under one a game at La Rosaleda. Real Sociedad sit sixth on 13 points under Pellegrino Matarazzo and score more on the road than at home, but they also concede plenty away. Their week has been busy. They beat Deportivo 3-2 last Sunday in a game where Pablo Marin was sent off, then drew 1-1 in Leuven against Union Saint-Gilloise on Thursday after conceding in the 88th minute. A Thursday night away in Belgium before a Sunday trip to the south of Spain takes a little off their chances. Malaga's medical list remains long, with Murillo, Aaron Ochoa and Julen Lobete among those still recovering, while Jens Cajuste has returned to partial group training. The old head-to-head is level: two wins each and a draw in the last five meetings. We rate the away win at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 53.5%, so nothing clears our bar.
Real Sociedad are the better side, but a Thursday trip to Belgium trims their edge to 41%. No main pick here.
Head to head
- 2024-01-07Malaga 0–1 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
- 2018-04-22Malaga 2–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 2017-12-10Real Sociedad 0–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 2017-05-14Real Sociedad 2–2 MalagaLa Liga
- 2017-01-16Malaga 0–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
FAQ
Have Malaga won a La Liga game this season?
Not yet: four draws and four defeats from eight games, and they sit bottom of the table.
How did Real Sociedad do in midweek?
They drew 1-1 away to Union Saint-Gilloise in the Europa League on Thursday, conceding late.
Is there a SureTips pick for Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
No main pick. The away win rates 41% and over 2.5 goals 53.5%, both below our 55% threshold.
What is the best bet for Malaga vs Real Sociedad?
The market favourite is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, rated 55% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 54% for this match.
When does Malaga vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 UTC.