Win probability
20%Espanyol
25%Draw
55%Atletico Madrid
La Liga · Spain
Markets
Over 2.5 goals53%
Under 2.5 goals47%
Both teams score (GG)62%
Double chance X280%
Key factors
- ▼Cuti Romero outATM
Centre-back Cuti Romero's muscle problem rules him out against Barcelona after he also missed Levante and Bayern; he drops out of Argentina's squad and should be back after the break.
- ▼Eder Sarabia suspendedESP
New coach Sarabia watches Deportivo from the stands as he serves the last game of a four-match ban carried over from last season; his bench debut comes next at Athletic.
- ▼Espanyol sacked Manolo González after a Copa del Rey exit to Sestao River and a poor league run, and appointed Eder Sarabia until 2028.ESP
Espanyol sacked Manolo González after a Copa del Rey exit to Sestao River and a poor league run, and appointed Eder Sarabia until 2028.
- ▼Cardoso outATM
Cardoso picked up an injury in the Champions League game against Stuttgart and was unavailable for the Deportivo match.
- ▼With Koke and Johnny Cardoso out, Marcos Llorente is expected to move into central midfield against Levante.ATM
With Koke and Johnny Cardoso out, Marcos Llorente is expected to move into central midfield against Levante.
- ▲Cuti Romero has recovered from his muscle strain after missing two games and is expected to go straight back into the XI at Levante.ATM
Cuti Romero has recovered from his muscle strain after missing two games and is expected to go straight back into the XI at Levante.
Preview
Atlético Madrid travel to Barcelona in form. They won 2-1 at Alavés last weekend, with a late winner against ten men, for a fourth straight league win. That leaves them second on 19 points. Simeone said before that game that he had a full squad for the first time this season, with Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sørloth back from injury. Espanyol are 12th on 8 points. They lost to Rayo Vallecano and Elche before the international break. Striker Kike García is injured, though his manager says his recovery is on schedule. Captain Javi Puado is available again after his knee injury but is not expected to start yet. Roberto Fernández, with six goals this season, is their main threat. This fixture has been close lately. In the last five meetings Atlético won once, Espanyol once, and three were drawn. Three of those five games had three or more goals. The market rates an away win at 55%, and the team news gives us no reason to move it.
Atlético are rightly favourites, but no market clears our 55% bar at a fair price. We publish the preview without a main pick.
Head to head
- 2026-02-21Atletico Madrid 4–2 EspanyolLa Liga
- 2025-08-17Espanyol 2–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 2025-03-29Espanyol 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 2024-08-28Atletico Madrid 0–0 EspanyolLa Liga
- 2023-05-24Espanyol 3–3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
FAQ
Who is missing for Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid?
Espanyol striker Kike García is injured. Atlético reported a full squad last week, with Barrios and Sørloth back from injury.
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid?
Atlético are favourites. We rate an away win at 55%, the draw at 25% and an Espanyol win at 20%.
Is there a pick for Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid?
No main pick this time. No market reaches our 55% threshold at an acceptable price, so we pass.
What is the best bet for Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid?
The market favourite is Atletico Madrid to win at odds of 1.79, rated 56% by the market. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 53% for this match.
When does Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 UTC.