Win probability
59%Barcelona
18%Draw
23%Real Madrid
La Liga · Spain
Markets
Over 2.5 goals79%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Under 2.5 goals21%
Both teams score (GG)67%
Double chance 1X77%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · BarcelonaBAR
Flick confirmed at his pre-match press conference that Jules Kounde will miss the Clasico; the club will not risk him.
- ▼Starter out · BarcelonaBAR
Dani Olmo has a left adductor injury from the defeat in Paris; Barcelona expect him out for around a month, so he misses Sunday.
- ▼Key player out · Real MadridREA
Vinicius Junior is serving a four-game league ban after his red card against Villarreal and misses the trip to Camp Nou.
- ●Cagey contest · Both teamsBoth
El Clasico is the fiercest rivalry in Spain and a top-of-the-table game; house rule for derbies applies the cagey goals factor.
- ▼Ferland Mendy outREA
Mendy is out with a hip injury.
- ▼Tchouaméni doubtfulREA
Tchouaméni, also absent from the Athens trip, trained alone on Thursday two days before Mestalla, while Güler was back in normal group work.
- ▼Rodri outBAR
Minor right hamstring injury confirmed by club tests; ruled out of the trip to Atletico, with the home game against Villarreal on 22 Nov his next possible return.
- ▲Trained on 4 Nov ahead of the Atletico trip and is closing in on a return, easing the defensive injury problems.BAR
Trained on 4 Nov ahead of the Atletico trip and is closing in on a return, easing the defensive injury problems.
Preview
Barcelona host the first Clasico of the season top of La Liga with nine wins from nine and 27 points, six clear of third-placed Real Madrid. The perfect run ended in Europe on Tuesday, a 4-2 defeat in Paris, and it cost Flick Dani Olmo, who is out for around a month with an adductor injury. Jules Kounde is also ruled out after Flick decided not to risk his ankle, and Eric Garcia remains injured. Madrid arrive in better spirits after beating Sevilla and RB Leipzig 4-1 inside four days, with Mbappe on the scoresheet against Leipzig. Their big loss is Vinicius Junior, banned for four league games after his red card against Villarreal. Barcelona have won four of the last five meetings, and four of those five games produced three goals or more. Derbies tend to be tighter than the season numbers suggest, so we trimmed the goals lines and gave no extra credit to the favourite. Even so, home advantage and a full-strength attack leave Barcelona as the side most likely to win, which we rate at 59%.
Barcelona are missing Kounde and Olmo, but Madrid are without the banned Vinicius. We rate the home win at 59%, close to the market price, so this is a fair-priced sure pick rather than a value bet.
Head to head
- 2026-05-10Barcelona 2–0 Real MadridLa Liga
- 2026-01-11Barcelona 3–2 Real MadridSuper Cup
- 2025-10-26Real Madrid 2–1 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 2025-05-11Barcelona 4–3 Real MadridLa Liga
- 2025-04-26Barcelona 3–2 Real MadridCopa del Rey
FAQ
Who is missing for Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Barcelona are without Jules Kounde, Dani Olmo, Eric Garcia and Andreas Christensen. Real Madrid are without the suspended Vinicius Junior.
What is our pick for the Clasico?
Barcelona to win at odds of 1.68. We rate it at 59%, slightly below the market's own view after the injury news.
How have recent Clasicos gone?
Barcelona won four of the last five meetings, and four of those five games had at least three goals.
What is the best bet for Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Our top pick is Barcelona to win at odds of 1.68, rated 59% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 79% for this match.
When does Barcelona vs Real Madrid kick off?
Sun 25 Oct, 20:00 UTC.