Athletic Club

Win probability

Markets

Key factors

• ▼
  Starter out · Athletic Club

  Midfielder Ruiz de Galarreta went off after 18 minutes against Getafe with a moderate right hamstring injury and is listed among Athletic's absentees for the derby.

  BIL
• ▼
  Starter out · Athletic Club

  Striker Guruzeta is out with a serious knee injury confirmed on 19 October; counted at reduced weight as the market has had over a week to absorb it.

  BIL
• ▼
  Fixture congestion · Athletic Club

  House rule 2: Athletic played Getafe on 25 October and won 6-1 away at AE Prat in the Copa on Thursday 29 October, so Sunday's derby is their third match in eight days after a Thursday away trip.

  BIL
• ●
  Cagey contest · Both teams

  Basque derby at San Mamés (house rule 5): cagey-context goals factor applied.

  Both
• ▼
  Mikel Oyarzabal doubtful

  Oyarzabal ended the Lyon game with back pain after a heavy knock, and Matarazzo could not say if Carlos Soler, out with a stomach bug, will recover for Rayo.

  RSO
• ▼
  Maroan out

  Maroan has a moderate-to-severe left hamstring injury from the derby; the expected six to eight weeks could end his 2026, leaving Iñaki Williams the only natural forward.

  BIL
• ▼
  Mamadou Sarr doubtful

  Centre-back Sarr went off at half-time against Lyon with soleus discomfort and is a concern for Sunday's game with Rayo.

  RSO
• ▲
  Coach Edin Terzic said Djalo is available to train and play again after a medical problem following international duty, with a gradual return to match rhythm.

  Coach Edin Terzic said Djalo is available to train and play again after a medical problem following international duty, with a gradual return to match rhythm.

  BIL

Preview

The Basque derby comes to San Mamés with Real Sociedad in the stronger run. They have taken 12 league points in a row, sit fifth on 19 points from 10 games, and score 2.4 goals per away match while conceding 2.2. Athletic are eighth on 12 points from 9, but solid at home: 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Terzic is without Ruiz de Galarreta (hamstring) and Guruzeta (knee). Sancet is back in training and available. Athletic also played a Copa tie away at AE Prat on Thursday, winning 6-1, though Laporte, Yuri Berchiche and Peio Canales were rested for this game. Real Sociedad have had a clear week, with only Odriozola missing. Recent meetings have been tight: four of the last five finished under 2.5 goals, with 10 goals in total, and La Real won three of them. The market makes Athletic slight favourites; after the cup trip and absences we rate the home win at 41%, the draw at 28% and the away win at 31%. Derbies tend to be tense, so we trim the goals outlook to 52% for over 2.5.

Head to head

• 2026-10-02Real Sociedad 0–1 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
• 2026-03-04Real Sociedad 1–0 Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
• 2026-02-11Athletic Club 0–1 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
• 2026-02-01Athletic Club 1–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
• 2025-11-01Real Sociedad 3–2 Athletic ClubLa Liga