Villarreal

Win probability

Markets

Key factors

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  Key player out · Paris Saint Germain

  Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, one of PSG's key forwards, is ruled out for months. News is 11 days old and PSG have kept winning since, so not counted at the full cap.

  PSG
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  Key player out · Paris Saint Germain

  Ousmane Dembélé is still unavailable with a thigh injury and missed the win at Le Havre. Counted below the full cap because PSG have won without him.

  PSG
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  Starter out · Villarreal

  Gerard Moreno went off with a muscle problem against Espanyol and is a doubt; counted at half weight until confirmed out.

  VIL
• ●
  Key attacker out · Paris Saint Germain

  PSG are without two key attackers, Kvaratskhelia and Dembélé.

  PSG
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  Key defender out · Paris Saint Germain

  PSG captain and first-choice centre-back Marquinhos is out with a thigh injury expected to last several weeks.

  PSG
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  Íñigo Pérez is under real pressure after the record 6-0 home defeat by PSG followed a loss to Espanyol, with Marca reporting the club weighing his future before Getafe.

  Íñigo Pérez is under real pressure after the record 6-0 home defeat by PSG followed a loss to Espanyol, with Marca reporting the club weighing his future before Getafe.

  VIL
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  Luis Enrique made five changes from the 2-0 win over Lyon for the 5-1 win at Le Havre, where Hakimi scored a hat-trick. He keeps rotating despite the injuries.

  Luis Enrique made five changes from the 2-0 win over Lyon for the 5-1 win at Le Havre, where Hakimi scored a hat-trick. He keeps rotating despite the injuries.

  PSG
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  Ousmane Dembélé out

  Dembélé (thigh) was still unavailable for the 5-1 win at Le Havre and remains out.

  PSG

Preview

PSG arrive top of the league phase with three wins from three and a run of six straight wins in October, scoring 21 times in those six games. They are doing it without big names: Kvaratskhelia is out for months, Dembélé is still missing with a thigh injury, and captain Marquinhos is also sidelined. Villarreal sit 19th on three points and need a result, but they come in off a flat 1-0 home defeat to Espanyol, where Gerard Moreno limped off early with a muscle problem. Iñigo Pérez also has a crowded treatment room, with several muscle injuries in the squad. The pattern in Europe is clear: Villarreal have scored at least twice in every Champions League game this season, but they have also conceded eight times in three. PSG's absences cut their attacking edge a little, and losing Marquinhos weakens the back line by about the same amount. We still make PSG favourites at 53%, but the safer read is goals. We rate over 2.5 goals at 71%.