Sabah FA

Win probability

Markets

Key factors

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  Fixture congestion · Borussia Dortmund

  Dortmund play their third game in about a week: away at Bodo/Glimt, then at Union Berlin on Saturday, then the long trip to Baku; dpa puts their travel for the week at roughly 11,300 km.

  DOR
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  Form & head-to-head · Borussia Dortmund

  Dortmund have gone two games without scoring (0-1 at Bodo/Glimt, 0-0 at Union Berlin), while Sabah kept a clean sheet in their 2-0 home win over Slavia. Capped at 1 pt early in the league phase.

  DOR
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  Guirassy out

  Guirassy misses Elversberg with a strain after going off in the Champions League win over Betis; Fábio Silva is the natural replacement.

  DOR
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  After his winner off the bench against Betis, Kovac unusually promised the 18-year-old a start in Saturday's league game with Elversberg.

  After his winner off the bench against Betis, Kovac unusually promised the 18-year-old a start in Saturday's league game with Elversberg.

  DOR
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  Serhou Guirassy doubtful

  Guirassy went off in the first half of the 2-1 win over Betis feeling his thigh; Kovac expects nothing worse than a strain but will not take risks, and Fábio Silva is the natural replacement against Elversberg.

  DOR
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  Simić doubtful

  Simić listed as doubtful (reason not given) by UEFA ahead of the 4 Nov Champions League match.

  SAB
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  Kauã Prates out

  Kauã Prates listed as out (muscular) by UEFA ahead of the 4 Nov Champions League match.

  DOR
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  Giannis Konstantelias out

  Konstantelias remains out with a cruciate ligament tear. He was listed among BVB's absentees for the match at Bayern.

  DOR

Preview

Dortmund arrive in Baku on a long, tiring week. They lost 1-0 at Bodo/Glimt, drew 0-0 at Union Berlin on Saturday and then flew roughly 11,300 km in total for the week, so their legs and their finishing are both in question. Konstantinos Karetsas hurt his foot at Union and stays at home; Emre Can and Giannis Konstantelias are still out long term. Nico Schlotterbeck and Julian Ryerson are back, and Serhou Guirassy should lead the line. Sabah are no pushovers at the Olympic Stadium: they beat Slavia Praha 2-0 there for their first Champions League win. We trim Dortmund's win from the market's 74% to 71% for the travel and the blank form, which makes the 1.33 price too short. The goals line is the better angle. Dortmund's quality should still create plenty, and the market rates over 2.5 goals at 69%. We take over 2.5 at 1.39.