Win probability
63%Liverpool
22%Draw
15%Villarreal
Champions League · Europe
Markets
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Under 2.5 goals35%
Both teams score (GG)72%
Double chance 1X85%
Key factors
- ▼Starter out · LiverpoolLIV
Dominik Szoboszlai started at Brentford but went off in the 31st minute injured and will miss the Villarreal game.
- ▼Fixture congestion · LiverpoolLIV
Third match in seven days (at LASK on 14 Oct, at Brentford on 17 Oct); Iraola called the situation very delicate after playing away in Europe and getting home late.
- ▼Fixture congestion · VillarrealVIL
Third match in eight days for Villarreal: Napoli at home on Tuesday 13 Oct, Elche on 17 Oct, then the trip to Anfield.
- ▼Íñigo Pérez is under real pressure after the record 6-0 home defeat by PSG followed a loss to Espanyol, with Marca reporting the club weighing his future before Getafe.VIL
Íñigo Pérez is under real pressure after the record 6-0 home defeat by PSG followed a loss to Espanyol, with Marca reporting the club weighing his future before Getafe.
- ▼Ryan Gravenberch doubtfulLIV
Gravenberch has a heel fracture he has played through; he missed Fenerbahce, has not improved since Arsenal, and Iraola called his Palace chances a day-to-day call.
- ▼Victor Munoz outLIV
Listed out with a knock in the 1 Nov Arsenal preview.
- ▼Frimpong outLIV
Frimpong listed as out (hamstring) by UEFA ahead of the 4 Nov Champions League match.
- ▼Bradley outLIV
Bradley listed as out (knee) by UEFA ahead of the 4 Nov Champions League match.
Preview
Liverpool have six points from two league-phase games, including a 6-3 win at LASK, but the schedule is biting. Tuesday is their third match in seven days after LASK and a 2-1 comeback win at Brentford on Saturday, and Andoni Iraola described the squad situation as very delicate. Dominik Szoboszlai went off after 31 minutes at Brentford with the same problem that kept him out of the two games before, and Jeremie Frimpong went off soon after coming on at half-time; both miss Tuesday. Alexander Isak scored the winner at Brentford. Villarreal also played on Tuesday and Saturday, but Iñigo Pérez kept only two starters from the 3-1 win over Napoli for the 0-0 draw with Elche, so his first-choice side should be fresh. They are without Tajon Buchanan and Nicolas Pépé. Liverpool's European games have been open: eight goals scored and four conceded in two matches. We trim Liverpool's win chance to 63% for fatigue and injuries. The cleaner angle is goals: we rate over 2.5 at 65%.
A tired, injury-hit Liverpool are still favourites, but their games keep producing goals at both ends. Over 2.5 goals is our sure pick at 65%.
Head to head
- 2022-05-03Villarreal 2–3 LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
- 2022-04-27Liverpool 2–0 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- 2016-05-05Liverpool 3–0 VillarrealUEFA Europa League
- 2016-04-28Villarreal 1–0 LiverpoolUEFA Europa League
FAQ
Who is missing for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Liverpool are without Dominik Szoboszlai and Jeremie Frimpong, both injured at Brentford. Villarreal are without Tajon Buchanan and Nicolas Pépé.
How have Liverpool and Villarreal started in the Champions League?
Liverpool have won both games, scoring eight and conceding four. Villarreal have one win and one defeat, beating Napoli 3-1 last time.
What is the SureTips pick for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Over 2.5 goals at 1.50, which we rate at 65%.
What is the best bet for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.50, rated 65% confidence. No bet is ever sure.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
We put the chance of three or more goals at 65% for this match.
When does Liverpool vs Villarreal kick off?
Tue 20 Oct, 19:00 UTC.