Lille

Win probability

Markets

Key factors

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  Starter out · Galatasaray

  Galatasaray say an MRI showed a mild-to-moderate groin strain for winger Rafael Leão and he is not expected to play in Lille. Osimhen, their main striker, is in UEFA's predicted XI, so we count Leão as a regular starter rather than a key attacker.

  GAL
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  Okan Buruk said Leao is not 100% fit yet after his groin strain; he also made early substitutions in the 4-0 win at Konyaspor to limit injury risk.

  Okan Buruk said Leao is not 100% fit yet after his groin strain; he also made early substitutions in the 4-0 win at Konyaspor to limit injury risk.

  GAL
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  After the 4-0 win at Konyaspor, Buruk said he changes the side every match in the congested schedule, and early substitutions were partly about injury risk.

  After the 4-0 win at Konyaspor, Buruk said he changes the side every match in the congested schedule, and early substitutions were partly about injury risk.

  GAL
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  Ayase Ueda out

  Ayase Ueda is still treating a foot problem and misses the Lens derby; the club hopes to have him back for Rennes before the break, otherwise after it.

  LIL
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  Kaan Ayhan out

  Kaan Ayhan was left out of the travelling squad for the Konyaspor away game because of an injury.

  GAL
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  Abdulkerim Bardakci suspended

  Bardakci was shown a red card in the brawl after the 2-1 derby win over Fenerbahce and has been referred to the disciplinary board for assault with a provisional ban from 27 October; a multi-match suspension is possible.

  GAL
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  Baris Alper Yilmaz doubtful

  Baris Alper Yilmaz has Achilles tendon pain that flared up after the Lille game; he trained and said he was ready, but the problem remains a risk.

  GAL

Preview

Lille and Galatasaray both start matchday three on zero points after two Champions League defeats. Neither defence has held: Lille have scored two and conceded six, Galatasaray have scored two and let in seven, including a 4-1 home loss to Barcelona. Lille drew 1-1 with Brest at the weekend, with Olivier Giroud scoring from the spot. Galatasaray beat Gençlerbirliği 1-0 but lost Rafael Leão to a groin strain; the club says he is not expected to play in Lille. Wilfried Singo trained with the squad on Monday after his thigh problem, and UEFA's predicted line-up has Victor Osimhen leading the line. Lille are without left-back Tiago Santos (knee) and winger Ethan Mbappé, who is serving a three-match UEFA ban. Striker Ayase Ueda is a doubt with a foot injury. The bookmakers rate Lille as slight favourites. Our numbers trim Galatasaray a little without Leão and leave the goals market as priced. Two leaky defences and two sides chasing their first points make goals the play: we rate over 2.5 at 58%.